基于熵值法和灰色预测模型的城市土地生态安全评价  

Evaluation on Ecological Security of Urban Land Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model

作　　者：李悦[1] 张合兵[1] 张小虎[1] 陈宁丽 孙江锋[1] 刘明远[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2015年第12期242-247,共6页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371524);中国博士后科学基金(2013M540571);河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(12B790014;13A630346);河南省政府决策研究招标课题(2014225)

摘　　要：城市土地生态安全事关城市经济社会的持续、健康发展。以信阳市为例,从资源环境协调性、经济可行性和社会可接受性3个方面构建城市土地生态安全评价指标体系。采用熵值法与灰色预测模型模型相结合的方法定量分析了2006-2012年信阳市城市土地生态安全状况,并对信阳市2013-2016年的土地生态状况进行了预测,构建障碍度模型诊断识别信阳市城市土地生态安全的主要障碍因素。研究表明:(1)2006-2012年信阳市城市土地生态安全指数总体呈增加态势,由2006年的不安全等级发展到2012年的较为安全等级;(2)资源环境协调性指数和社会可接受性指数快速增加,经济可行性则呈现波动增长;(3)人口密度高、工业用地比重大、人均建设用地大、城乡收入差距大等因素阻碍了信阳市城市土地生态安全水平的进一步提升;(4)2013-2016年信阳市城市土地生态安全状况呈现稳步上升趋势,年均增长率为5.05%。The urban land ecological security is related to the sustainable and healthy development of the city ＇s economy and society. Taking the city of Xinyang as a case,the study constructed the urban land ecological security indicator system from the aspects of coordination of resource and environment,economical feasibility and the social acceptability. The land ecological security situation in 2006-2012 of the City was analyzed by using entropy value method and grey prediction model method,and barriers of the model was built to identify the main obstacle factors of land ecological security. Results indicated that from 2006 to 2012,in urban area of Xinyang,land ecological safety index showed the overall increasing trend,shifting from unsafe level to safe levels. The coordination of resource and environment and the social acceptability index increased rapidly,and the economic feasibility index was in a fluctuating growth trend. High population density,the large of the proportion of industrial land and per capita construction land,the big income gap between urban and rural areas are main factors to restrict further improvements of the urban land ecological security level in the City. The level of the urban land ecological security showed a steady upward trend from 2013 to 2016,with average annual growth rate up to 5.05%.

关 键 词：城市土地 生态安全 灰色预测模型 熵值法 信阳市 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F301[经济管理—产业经济]