基于情景分析的广东省建筑节能减排潜力研究  

Analysis and Dynamic Prediction of Building Energy Consumption and GHG Emission in Guangdong Province Based on Scenario Analysis Method

作　　者：郭洪旭[1,2] 黄莹[3] 赵黛青[3] 肖荣波 

机构地区：[1]广东省环境科学研究院,广东广州510045 [2]哈尔滨工业大学深圳研究生院深圳市城市规划与决策仿真重点实验室,广东深圳518000 [3]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广东广州510640

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2015年第12期305-310,共6页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划子课题项目(2012BAC20B12);深圳市城市规划与决策仿真重点实验室开放课题基金(UPDMHITSZ2014B09)

摘　　要：在全球应对气候变化的背景下,如何促进建筑的节能减排成为人们关注的重点。该文采用情景分析法,通过预测广东省2020年的建筑能耗和碳排放,分析不同政策选择对建筑能耗和碳排放的影响,进而梳理可行的节能减排途径,得到以下结论:(1)到2020年,广东省建筑能耗和碳排放将增长至3 547万tce和15 825万t CO_2,相对于2010年,增幅分别为41%和54%;推广可行的建筑节能技术,可实现建筑节能减排约25%;(2)公共建筑能耗和碳排放的增量以及节能减排潜力均大于居住建筑,节能技术在公共建筑中的推广是未来建筑节能减排工作的重点;(3)楼宇自动化系统、热泵、太阳能热水器、建筑围护结构和节能灯具是广东省最具有推广潜力和节能潜力的5项技术;(4)节能灯和楼宇自动化系统在新建公共建筑中的推广以及太阳能热水器在既有居住建筑中的推广是未来最有潜力的节能减排措施。Energy consumption and greenhouse gas（GHG）emissions in construction sector of Guangdong Province in 2020 were predicted and the effects of different policy options on them were analyzed by the scenario analysis method aiming at finding the way to energy-saving and pollution reduction. The conclusions indicated that by the year 2020, energy consumption and GHG emissions in the province＇s construction sector will rise by 41% and 54% respectively compared with those on 2010,and if the energy saving technologies will be applied about a quarter of energy could be saved. Potentials of energy-saving in the public buildings would be greater than in residential building,so public buildings should be paid more attention regarding the energy-saving technology. Building automation system,heat pump,solar water heater,building envelopes and energy-saving lightings are most likely the practicable tools worthy promotion;and for the years to come building automation system and energy-saving lightings used in new public buildings and solar water heater used in the existing residential building will be the most promising measures to achieve energy saving and GHG emission reduction.

关 键 词：情景分析法 低碳建筑 节能减排潜力 广东省 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]