电网系统突发受袭下的风险分析问题  

A Risk Evaluation of Grid System under a Sudden Terrorist Attack

作　　者：丁雪枫[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学管理学院,上海200444

出　　处：《工业工程》2015年第6期83-88,共6页Industrial Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71502098);教育部人文社科研究资助项目(13YJC63-23);上海市优秀青年教师科研专项基金资助项目;上海市博士后科研资助项目(11R21416300);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2012M510892)

摘　　要：电网系统作为城市生活生产的主要能量供给来源,一旦遭到恐怖袭击,会引发一系列的连锁反应,并造成无法预料的生命、财产损失,也因此成为恐怖袭击者的一个理想目标。为了避免或降低突发恐怖袭击下电网系统失控而造成的损失,考虑在防御资源有限的情况下,提出将博弈论的思想运用于恐怖袭击事件的风险评价问题当中。首先,基于度和集聚系数的方法,对电网中各设施节点的重要性进行度量,在此基础上,根据各设施节点的风险等级大小,结合零和博弈的思想,确立各个节点的目标损失概率和所分配的防御资源,并引入算例对所提出方法的实用性和有效性进行验证。从理论上证实随着防御资源的增多,可以分配到防御资源的节点个数,以及每个节点所被分配到的防御资源相应增多。Grid system is regarded as the main source of urban life and production energy supply,once under a terrorist attack,it can lead to a series of chain reactions,and cause unexpected loss of life and property. Thus,it has become a desirable goal of the attackers. In order to avoid or reduce the grid system loss caused by an unexpected terrorist attack which is out of control,considering the limited defense resources,game theory is applied to the risk evaluation of the terrorist attack. First,based on degree and clustering coefficient method,the importance of each facility node in the grid is measured,and then,according to each facility node risk level,combined with the idea of zero sum game,loss probability and the allocation of defense resources of each node are established. A numerical example is introduced to validate the proposed method. It is theoretically confirmed that with the increase of the defense resources,more facility nodes can be allocated for defense resources,and defense resources allocated to each node increase correspondingly.

关 键 词：恐怖袭击 零和博弈 度 集聚系数 风险评价 

分 类 号：F237[经济管理—会计学]