基于PERT的多因素影响下的项目工期风险评价  

A Project Duration Risk Analysis and Evaluation Under Multiple Influencing Factors Based on PERT

作　　者：武菲菲[1] 王学海 程铁信[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387 [2]天津市水务工程建设交易管理中心,天津300204

出　　处：《工业工程》2015年第6期89-92,共4页Industrial Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(13ASH003)

摘　　要：为了有效控制工程项目的工期风险,提出基于PERT的多因素影响下的项目工期风险评价方法。本文从分析影响项目工期的风险因素出发,对每一风险因素所引起的项目作业拖延时间根据其特征可以给出不同的假设分布,确定各风险因素对作业的影响,并通过蒙特卡罗模拟确定项目各路径工期的分布。通过仿真,可以直观、方便地分析风险因素对项目工期的独立影响和组合影响大小,为项目进度风险控制提供了多角度、多维度的视角。In order to effectively control the construction project duration,an evaluation method under multiple influencing factors based on PERT is proposed. The risk factors affecting the project duration are analyzed and some different assumptions about the distribution of the delay time caused by each risk factor made to determine the impact on each activity. Then,each path duration distribution of the project is determined through Monte Carlo simulation,by which the independent and combined effectiveness of the risk factors is obtained,and the duration risk is analyzed and controlled from different perspectives.

关 键 词：工程管理 项目工期 PERT技术 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]