汇率传导机制下日本超量化宽松货币政策效果  

Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Japan's Super Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy under the Exchange Rate Transmission Mechanism

作　　者：李彬[1] 邓美薇 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学日本研究所,辽宁沈阳110136 [2]辽宁大学国际关系学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《日本问题研究》2015年第6期7-17,共11页Japanese Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10BGJ010)

摘　　要：从蒙代尔—弗莱明—多恩布什(M—F—D)模型及新开放经济宏观经济学模型(NOEM)出发,通过构建SVAR模型,基于汇率传导机制分析日本量化宽松货币政策效果。研究结果表明:日本超量化宽松货币政策短期效果良好,汇率对物价的传导作用较显著,对产出的传导受阻,主要因为日元贬值未明显改善贸易收支;随着日本基础货币投放加码,广义货币供应量增长速度放缓,货币流动性有可能滞存金融体系并滋生资产泡沫,政策效果随之打折;鉴于日本量化宽松货币政策有愈演愈烈之势,易与美国退出量化宽松产生共振效应,故中国不仅应吸取其宽松金融政策的实践经验,同时需要审慎对待并及早应对其负面冲击。Based on Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch（MFD） model and the New Open Economy Macroeconomics models（NOEM）, we built the SVAR model to measure the effect of Japan＇s super quantitative easing monetary policy under the exchange rate transmission mechanism. The results shows that： the policy＇s short-term effect is remarkable, and the exchange rate has a significant impact on prices, but not on output, mainly because the depreciation of the yen doesn＇t obviously improve the trade balance; with the amount of Japan base money becomes bigger and bigger, the growth of broad money＇s supply slows down, and monetary liquidity may be strand in the financial system and breed asset bubble, then the effects of policy will get worse; as Japan＇s quantitative easing monetary policy getting more loose and the Federal Reserve withdrawing the quantitative easing policy, China should not only absorb the lessons of Japan＇s loose monetary policy practical experiences, but also treat its negative impact carefully and respond as soon as possible.

关 键 词：日本 量化宽松 汇率传导机制 SVAR 政策效果 

分 类 号：F1[经济管理—世界经济]