TrancCAD在交通预测“四阶段法”中的应用  

Application of the traffic forecasting “four-stage method” in TransCAD

作　　者：徐建军[1] 关志伟[1] 刘晓锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津职业技术师范大学汽车与交通学院,天津300222

出　　处：《天津职业技术师范大学学报》2015年第4期46-49,共4页Journal of Tianjin University of Technology and Education

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51408417);天津市自然科学基金项目(14JCTPJC00472);公安理论及软科学研究计划项目(2012LLYJTJSJ077);天津市高等学校科技发展基金项目(20140917)

摘　　要：出行生成预测、出行分布预测、方式划分以及交通分配是"四阶段法"交通预测的主要步骤,其预测过程计算复杂,需要经过反复迭代计算才能得出结果。在TransCAD中运用"四阶段法"进行交通预测,大大简化了预测步骤,减少了计算过程。本文基于交通预测问题,采用实例运用的方法,在TransCAD中运用"四阶段法"进行实例验证,并指出在运用TransCAD进行交通预测时需要注意的问题。结果表明,在TransCAD软件中运用"四阶段法"进行交通预测方便可靠。Trip generation forecast, trip distribution forecast, mode split and traffic assignment are main steps of the ＂four- stage method＂ traffic forecasts. Its forecasting process is fhll of computational complexity, and it needs the repeated iterativc calculation to get the results. Using the ＂four-stage method＂ to carry traffic forecasts in TransCAD greatly simplifies the pre- diction step and reduces the computational process. The ＂four-stage method＂ prediction step is introduced, and some ex- amples are taken to introduce the prediction process of ＂four-stage method＂ in TransCAD software. It also points out the problems that need to be paid attention to in TransCAD application. The resuh shows that it is convenient and reliable to use the ＂four stage method＂ in TransCAD software.

关 键 词：“四阶段法” TRANSCAD软件 交通预测 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]