基于树轮资料木兰围场初夏气温及干燥指数重建  

Reconstruction of early summer temperature and annual aridity index at Mulan Weichang in northern China

作　　者：王旸[1] 徐康[1] 关文彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学自然保护区学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国水土保持科学》2015年第6期141-148,共8页Science of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：林业公益性行业科研专项"重要名胜区古树健康诊断与维持技术研究"(200904019)

摘　　要：河北省木兰围场国家级自然保护区是我国京津冀地区重要的生态屏障。为了解该地区的历史气候变化过程,助力生态保护和治理,根据树轮气候学方法,研究采用围场地区油松和鱼鳞云杉的树轮资料,分别建立2种树木的标准化年表、差值年表和自相关年表,分析各年表与气候因子及生态气候指标的相关性,并重建历史气候序列。结果表明:研究区内树木的径向生长主要受夏季气温和年降水量的影响,各年表均与湿润指数及干燥指数显著相关(P<0.01)。利用油松标准化年表重建的木兰围场5—6月均温、5月气温及干燥指数序列,其方差解释量分别达到48.1%、39.9%和33.8%。重建结果与相邻地区的树轮研究一致并与20世纪重大旱灾记录对应,证明重建可靠并说明区域气候变化有一致性。对重建序列进行的滑动平均和功率谱分析表明,1909—2008年间,围场地区大致经历了4个高温干旱期和3个低温湿润期,并存在准21年的显著周期。The Mulan Weichang National Nature Reserve,located in northern Hebei province,adjacent to southeastern Inner Mongolia,is an important ecological barrier and nature reservoir for Beijing-TianjinHebei region. Cognizing the historical climate change of this area will benefit the ecological protection and management of North China Plain. As an essential research technique for the climate variability and predictability（ CLIVARl）, dendroclimatology tackles problems of present and past climate with information of dated tree-rings. According to the theories of dendroclimatology,we developed two-group standard chronologies（ STD）,residual chronologies（ RES） and autoregressive chronologies（ ARS）based on tree-ring widths of Chinese pine（ Pinus tabuliformis） and Yeddo spruce（ Picea jezoenssis var.komarovii） from two sampling points in the nature reserve and all the chronologies were significantly correlated with each other. The correlation analyses between chronologies and climate factors showed that the radial growth of both arbor species was closely related to summer temperature and annual precipitation. Among all the calculations, STD of Chinese pine（ STDpine） and May-June mean temperature had the maximum correlation coefficient（ r =- 0. 654,P〈 0. 01）. Additionally,we investigated the relationship between chronologies with ecoclimatic indices. The analysis suggested that tree-ring growth was highly influenced by humidity index and aridity index. Using regression analysis,the mean temperature of May to June,the temperature of May and annual aridity index from 1909 to 2008 were reconstructed on the basis of STDpine. After calibration,the explained variances of the three reconstructions value were 48. 1 %,39. 9 % and 33. 8 % respectively. The trend of change of each estimated series was consistent with the observed data. In addition,the estimated and observed aridity indexes were both better correlated with temperature than precipitation,indicating that the contribution of temperature to the

关 键 词：油松 鱼鳞云杉 年表 生态气候指标 干燥指数 树轮资料 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]