Vague集法在油气管道失效可能性分析中的应用  

Application of Vague set method to failure possibility analysis of oil & gas pipeline

作　　者：周立国[1] 姚安林[1,2] 付冉[1] 武明明[1] 江文[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院,四川成都610500 [2]油气消防四川省重点实验室,四川成都610500

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2015年第10期91-96,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK06B01)

摘　　要：为分析油气管道的失效可能性,运用组合权重与Vague集法,构建管道失效可能性评价指标体系;采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)确定主观权重,利用熵权法确定客观权重,并用方差最大化的组合赋权法合理分配主观与客观权重。根据评价指标分值,应用Vague集法得出各管段的失效可能性排序。用优序法,比较Vague集法、模糊综合评价法、灰色关联分析法。结果表明,Vague集法对指标分值的处理结果更为准确,可应用于油气管道失效可能性分析。In order to analyze failure possibility of oil and gas pipeline,a method was worked out on the basis of combined weight and Vague set method. First,a pipeline failure probability assessment index system was established. Then, subjective weights were determined by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process（ FAHP）,objective weights were determined by the entropy method,and the combined weight assignment method based on maximizing variance was used to allocate subjective and objective weights reasonably.Finally,failure possibility ranking of pipe sections were worked out by Vague set. A comparison was made between the Vague set method,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the gray correlation analysis method by using the optimum order method. The given example shows that the calculation result obtained by Vague set method is more accuratethan that obtained by either of the two other methods.

关 键 词：油气管道 失效可能性 组合权重 Vague集法 优序法 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]