1956—2010年海河区降水变化对水资源供需影响分析  

Impacts of Precipitation Change on Water Supply and Demand in Haihe River Region During 1956-2010

作　　者：曹建廷[1] 邱冰[1] 夏军[2] 

机构地区：[1]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2015年第2期111-114,共4页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB428406)

摘　　要：基于全国水资源综合规划和水资源公报获得的海河区1956—2010年降水、水资源系列资料和基准年水资源需水预测成果,分1956—1979年和1980—2010年两个时段,初步分析了降水变化对海河区水资源量和需水量的影响。结果显示:与1956—1979年相比,降水变化导致海河区1980—2010年水资源量减少约86亿m3,经济社会需水量增加约22亿m3,经济社会总缺水量77亿m3,占总缺水量的75%。降水减少加剧了海河区水资源的供需矛盾。Based on China＇s water resources assessment and water resources bulletins, time series of precipitation, water resource, and water demand projection in base year were established, and the impacts of precipitation changes on water supply and demand in Haihe River region were analyzed by comparison in two phases namely 1956-1979 and 1980-2010. The results showed that the decrease of precipitation significantly reduces water resources 8.6 billion m^3 and increases the amount of water demand 2.2 billion m^3 annually during 1980-2010. Socioeconomic water scarcity caused by precipitation change is 7.7 billion m^3, occupying 75% of the total water scarcity. The precipitation decreasing aggregates the conflicts between water demand and supply.

关 键 词：水资源供给 水资源需求 降水变化 海河区 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]