1978—2008年中国十省主要农业气象灾害动态及其影响分析  

Dynamics of Main Agro-Meteorological Disasters and Their Effects in 1978-2008 in 10 Provinces of China

作　　者：胡亚男[1] 郑金伟[1] 潘根兴[1] 程琨[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学农业资源与生态环境研究所,南京210095

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2015年第2期123-130,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题"气候变化对农业生产的影响及风险分析评估"(2012BAC19B01)

摘　　要：基于数学统计方法,从案例研究入手,研究了1978—2008年中国十省主要农业气象灾害动态及其空间分布特征,评价了农业气象灾害成灾面积风险。结果表明,旱灾是中国最主要的农业气象灾害,而霜冻成灾面积年际间波动最大。在区域分布方面,旱灾受灾风险体现为东部省份高于西部省份,北部省份高于南部省份;长江中下游地区和东北地区省份遭受洪涝的风险较高,而西北地区省份的风险较低;青海省是风雹的重灾区。各省主要农业气象灾害成灾面积风险差异较大,旱灾和洪涝成灾面积风险高于风雹灾和霜冻灾。Ten provinces in China were chosen to assess the dynamics and impact of agro-meteorological disasters in 1978-2008 by the application of agricultural statistical data on statistical methods, and the spatial risk distribution of agricultural disasters were analyzed. The results show that drought disaster was one of the n＇lost important disasters in China; however, a high temporal variation was observed in the frost disaster areas. In terms of spatial variation, the risk of drought disaster in the eastern provinces was higher than that in the western, the northern provinces higher than the southern; high flood disaster risk mainly occurred in the Yangtze River region and the northeastern region in China; Qinghai Province in Tibetan Plateau had a high risk in hail disaster. There were large differences in the risk probabilities of four agro-meteorological disasters in China. The probabilities of drought and flood disasters were much higher than those of frost and hail disasters.

关 键 词：中国 农业气象灾害 成灾面积 风险 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]