气候变化对我国若干重大工程的影响  

The Impacts of Climate Change on Several Major Projects in China

作　　者：陈鲜艳[1] 梅梅[1] 丁一汇[1] 巢清尘[1] 宋亚芳[1] 吴秋洁[2] 曹润东 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]成都信息工程大学,成都610225 [3]南京信息工程大学,南京210044

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2015年第5期337-342,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：行业专项(GYHY201306023;GYHY201206013);国家自然科学基金项目(41105053);科技部国际科技合作项目(2010DFA21340)

摘　　要：全球气候变化,特别是升温、降水强度增加以及极端天气气候事件频发,会通过影响重大工程的设施本身、重要辅助设备以及重大工程所依托的环境,从而进一步影响工程的安全性、稳定性、可靠性和耐久性,并对重大工程的运行效率和经济效益产生一定影响,气候变化还对重大工程的技术标准和工程措施产生影响。本文以青藏铁路(公路)工程、高速铁路工程、重大水利水电工程为典型工程阐述气候变化对重大工程的影响。青藏铁路(公路)沿线的冻土环境的热平衡极易打破,多年冻土环境一经破坏,难以恢复,气候变化已经使多年冻土环境发生变化,并且未来的多年冻土退化在全球变暖的背景下将变得更加严重。未来中国地区的地表气温、年平均降水量、台风等都将发生变化,极端天气气候事件频发,影响我国高速铁路的气候变化向着不利于高铁工程的趋势发展,将给高铁基础设施的服役寿命以及高铁运输秩序等方面带来影响。气候变化导致的温度变化、降水变化,改变了水资源的时空分布规律,对水工程和水安全在水量分配和调度、水资源利用和水文风险管理等产生影响。Global climate change,which featured as increasing temperature,increased precipitation intensity and more frequent extreme weather events,will affect the security,the stability,the reliability and the durability of the engineering by impacting major engineering facilities and important auxiliary equipment,and it will have an effect on major projects＇ operating efficiency and economic benefit.The climate change also influences the technical standards and engineering measures of the major projects.Major projects including the Qinghai-Tibet railway,the high-speed railway,the water resources and hydropower project are taken as typical engineering systems to describe impacts of climate change on major projects of China.The thermal balance of frozen soil environment along the Qinghai-Tibet railway（highway） is easy to break,while the environment of permafrost is difficult to recover.The surface temperature,annual precipitation,typhoons will be changed and the extreme weather and climate events will occur more frequently in the future climate,which will affect the service life of high speed railway infrastructure and the transportation order and so on.The future spatial and temporal distribution of water resources are changed due to the temperature and precipitation in the climate change background,which will influence the water allocation and scheduling,water resource utilization and hydrological risk management.

关 键 词：重大工程 气候变化 影响 

分 类 号：TU744[建筑科学—建筑技术科学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]