高危孕产妇发生率预测的灰色数列预测模型  

Grey Prediction Model for Incidence of High-risk Pregnant Women

作　　者：王万平 陆艳平 

机构地区：[1]武汉市东西湖区妇幼保健院,湖北武汉430040

出　　处：《中国社会医学杂志》2015年第6期445-447,共3页Chinese Journal of Social Medicine

基　　金：中国妇幼卫生监测项目(GZ2013DO5)

摘　　要：目的了解武汉市2003-2012年高危孕产妇发生率,预测其发展趋势。方法利用武汉市2003-2012年高危孕产妇资料建立灰色模型GM(1,1)。结果预测发病率与实际发病率相近,模型的拟合及预测效果较满意。结论此模型有良好的适应性,给决策工作提供可靠的科学依据。Objectives To understand the incidence of high-risk pregnant women in Wuhan City between 2003and2012 and predict its development trends.Methods Through the application of Model GM（1,1）,grey prediction model was established based on data about high-risk pregnant women in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2012.ResultsThe predicted incidence was similar to actual incidence.The model fitting were all good enough.And Model GM（1,1）had a satisfactory predicting effect.Conclusions This model has a good adaptability and could provide reliable scientific basis for decision-making.

关 键 词：高危孕产妇 灰色数列 预测模型 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]