1961-2013年东北三省极端气候事件时空格局及变化  

Spatial distribution and temporal change in extreme weather events in three provinces in Northeast China

作　　者：李洋[1,2] 王玉辉[1] 吕晓敏[1,2] 叶永昌[1,2] 汲玉河[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室,北京100093 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第12期2501-2513,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：中央财政行政事业项目(132020010406);公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目(GYHY201406034)

摘　　要：东北三省是中国重要的商品粮基地。本文基于东北三省1961-2013年71个台站逐日气温、降水资料,选取了"欧洲地区极端事件统计和区域动力降尺度"(STARDEX)项目提出的57个极端指数中的8个核心指数,分析和揭示东北三省极端气候事件的空间格局及变化,研究结果可为降低东北三省自然灾害对农业生产的影响,以及制定应对气候风险的策略提供依据。研究结果表明:1年和四季的高温阈值、低温阈值与最长热浪天数均随时间呈现波动上升趋势,年和春、秋、冬季的霜冻日数随年际表现为下降趋势;2东北三省西南地区易发生极端高温事件,北部易发生极端低温事件。同时北部亦是年和春、秋霜冻日数的高值分布区,且高温热浪的天数相对较长(高温热浪的季节);3年和秋季强降水阈值随时间呈现波动下降趋势,而春、夏和冬季强降水阈值呈现波动上升趋势;年和春、夏、冬季强降水比例和强降水日数亦随年际呈现波动上升趋势,秋季强降水比例和强降水日数则表现为下降趋势;年和春、秋、冬季的持续干期呈现下降趋势,夏季呈现上升趋势;4东南部是极端降水事件的高发区,夏季与春季、秋季为极端降水事件易发的季节,极端事件增多,且向西部蔓延。年与四季的持续干期的分布均呈现西长东短的特点。Based on daily temperature and precipitation for 71 stations in three provinces in northeast China from 1961 to 2013,extreme weather events were assessed using eight climatic indices defined by STARDEX. We found that trends in seasonal and annual high temperature threshold,low temperature threshold and the longest heatwave date fluctuated upwards over time.Over time the annual and spring,autumn,winter frost date performed decline. Extreme high temperature event easily occurred in the southwest and extreme low temperature event easily occurred in the north. The high value areas of annual,spring and autumn frost date were distributed in the north and the frost date has decreased. The date of high temperature heatwave was relatively long in the north and east. Annual and autumn heavy precipitation threshold declined over time and went upwards in spring,summer and winter. The annual,spring,summer and winter heavy precipitation rate and heavy precipitation date increased with the time,but decreased in autumn.Annual,spring,autumn and winter continuous dry dates decreased with the time and increased in summer. The southeast is a high risk area for extreme precipitation events. Extreme precipitation events easily occurred in summer,spring and autumn. Extreme precipitation events increased and spread to the west. The distribution of annual and seasonal continuous dry dates were long in the west and short in the east.

关 键 词：东北三省 极端气候事件 STARDEX 时空格局 变化特征 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]