基于组合评价法的江苏省雷电灾害风险区划  

Combined evaluation method-based risk zoning of lightning disaster in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：崔逊[1] 庄燕洵 王洪生[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省防雷中心,江苏南京210008 [2]广东省防雷中心,广东广州510080

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2015年第6期187-194,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：江苏省科技厅项目(BE2013728)~~

摘　　要：在压力-状态-响应(PSR)概念框架模型指导下,设计了一套雷电灾害风险区划指标体系,并以江苏省为例进行了实证分析。首次将熵的思想引入到雷电风险区划中,对同一数据分别采用熵值法、主成分分析法、层次分析法3种方法确定8项指标的权重,通过计算斯皮尔曼相关系数值研究不同评价方法之间的密切程度。结果表明:3种方法的相关性都很高,可以采用组合评价法对结果进行组合,重新排序;江苏省雷电极高风险区位于苏州、无锡、南京、南通,高风险区位于常州、徐州、扬州,中风险区位于盐城、泰州、镇江,低风险区位于淮安、连云港、宿迁,该区划结果可供防灾减灾决策参考。Under the guidance of ＂ pressure- state- response＂（ PSR） conceptual framework model,a set of index system of lightning disaster risk zoning was designed,which was used to conduct a empirical analysis with Jiangsu Province as an example. This is the first time that the concept of entropy is introduced to the lightning risk zoning.Three methods,the entropy method,the principal component analysis method,and the analytic hierarchy process,were used on the same sets of data to determine the weights of eight indices. By calculating Spearman correlation coefficient,the closeness of the three different evaluation methods was researched. The results showed that,there existed a high correlation among the three methods. It＇s feasible to combine and reorder the results by using combined evaluation method. The very high risk areas of lightning in Jiangsu Province are located in Suzhou,Wuxi,Nanjing and Nantong; the high risk areas of lightning are located in Changzhou,Xuzhou and Yangzhou; the medium risk areas of lightning are located in Yancheng,Taizhou and Zhenjiang; the low risk areas of lightening are located in Huaian,Lianyungang and Suqian. The zoning results could give an important reference to disaster prevention and mitigation decisions.

关 键 词：雷电灾害 风险区划 PSR 组合评价法 江苏省 

分 类 号：P463.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]