1964—2012年石河子地区干湿变化特征  

Variation of Humidity Index in Shihezi Region,Xinjiang from 1964 to 2012

作　　者：吴燕锋[1] 巴特尔.巴克 李维[1] 魏小琴[1] 加依娜古丽.窝扎提汗 Rasulov H H 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]塔吉克农业大学水文气象系,塔吉克斯坦杜尚别734003

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2015年第5期991-999,共9页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家国际科技合作计划项目(2010DFA92720-13);2014年度新疆研究生科研创新项目(XJGRI2014079);新疆维吾尔自治区土壤学重点学科项目资助

摘　　要：基于石河子地区1964—2012年逐日气温和降水量的观测资料,运用趋势分析法、M-K突变检验法、小波分析法和R/S分析法,研究了石河子地区相对湿润指数的年际、季节变化特征,并对其未来变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明：1过去49 a,石河子地区气温和降水都呈增加趋势,且逐渐趋于暖湿化;2石河子地区年、夏季相对湿润指数和4个气象站的相对湿润指数都呈增加趋势,而春季和秋季的相对湿润指数则呈减少趋势;3石河子地区全年、春季、夏季和秋季以及石河子市、莫索湾和炮台地区的相对湿润指数都发生了突变,并存在10-12 a的周期,而乌兰乌苏地区年相对湿润指数没有突变,仅存在10-12 a的周期;4石河子地区全年的相对湿润指数以及莫索湾、石河子市、乌兰乌苏、炮台和石河子地区夏季的相对湿润指数将从增加趋势转变为减少趋势,而春季和秋季的相对湿润指数将从减少趋势转化为增加趋势。Shihezi is located in Xinjiang,an arid area of Northwestern China. In the context of global warming,the dry-wet conditions of Shihezi have significantly influence on many aspects of production and life. Therefore,it is necessary to conduct the research to investigate the variation of past decades and predict change trend of dry-wet conditions in the future,so as to provide reference to relative research and farming operation management. Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data in Shihezi region from 1964 to 2012,the method of trend analysis,M-K analysis,wavelet analysis,relative humid index,and R / S analysis was applied to analyze the temporal characteristics in this area. The results showed that the annual temperature and precipitation had a significantly increasing trend.The relative humid of Shihezi region,summer and four stations increased while the relative humid of spring and autumn decreased in the past 49 years. Abrupt change occurred in the changing process of the relative humid index of annual change,spring,summer,autumn,Shihezi city,Mosuowan County and Paotai county while not occurred in Wulanwusu County. The relative humid index,annual and summer change in Shihezi region and in four stations,would transform form increasing trend to decreasing trend while transform form decreasing trend to increasing trend in spring and autumn. This paper can provide reference for the research of dry-wet conditions variation and response to meteorological drought efficiently.

关 键 词：干湿状况 相对湿润指数 平均气温 年降水量 石河子 

分 类 号：P468.023[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]