钉螺感染率与气候因素的空间回归关系研究  

Spatial regression analysis of relationship between schistosome infection rate of Oncomelania hupensis snails and climate factors

作　　者：陈艳艳[1] 刘建兵[1] 肖瑛[1] 周晓蓉[1] 蒋湧[1] 代凌峰[1] 蔡顺祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,武汉430079

出　　处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2015年第2期125-128,共4页Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control

基　　金：湖北省卫生厅血吸虫病防治科研项目(XF2012-24;XF2012-26)

摘　　要：目的探讨血吸虫病流行区钉螺感染率与气候因素之间的关系,为控制钉螺提供科学依据。方法收集2009年湖北省18个县(市、区)的螺情资料和气候因素资料,计算钉螺感染率和相关气候指标并拟合空间回归模型。结果多重线性回归分析结果显示,模型残差具有空间自相关性(Moran’s I=0.182 8,P<0.01),需拟合空间回归模型。根据空间依赖性检验结果,选择拟合空间滞后模型(SLM)。经检验,SLM模型拟合的空间回归系数有统计学意义(ρ=-0.151 5,P<0.05),拟合优度较好。SLM模型结果显示,钉螺感染率与年均温度呈正相关,且回归系数有统计学意义(P<0.05),与年均相对湿度、年均降雨量及年均日照时数无相关关系(P均>0.05)。结论空间回归分析在研究钉螺与气候因素的关系时分析效果较好。影响钉螺感染率的主要气候因素是年均温度。Objective To explore the relationship between the schistosome infection rate of O. hupensis snails and the climate factors in endemic areas of schistosomiasis,so as to provide the evidence for improving the snail control. Methods The snail and climate data of 18 counties in Hubei Province in 2009 were collected to obtain the infection rate of O. hupensis snails and to fit the spatial regression models. Results The multiple linear regression model showed that the residuals were autocorrelated（Moran＇s I = 0.182 8,P〈0.01）and the spatial regression was necessary. The spatial lag model（SLM）was selected according to the results obtained by Lagrange multiplier statistics. The spatial parameter ρ of SLM was significant（ρ=- 0.151 5,P〈0.05）and the infection rate of O. hupensis snails was positively correlated with the annual average temperature（P〈0.05）.The correlations between the infection rate of O. hupensis and the annual average relative humidity,precipitation and sunshine duration were not significant respectively（all P〉0.05）. Conclusions The spatial regression models could be well applied in the analysis of the relationship between the O. hupensis snails and climate factors. The annual average temperature is the primary climate factor influencing the infection of O. hupensis snails.

关 键 词：钉螺 血吸虫病 气候 空间自相关 空间回归分析 

分 类 号：R383.24[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]