油淬火—回火弹簧钢丝市场预测  

Market forecast of oil quenching and tempering spring steel wire

作　　者：王宝玉[1] 张琼[1] 沈献民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中钢集团郑州金属制品研究院有限公司,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《金属制品》2015年第3期6-8,12,共4页Metal Products

摘　　要：我国汽车市场的高速发展带动了油淬火—回火弹簧钢丝的生产与销售。通过分析,发现汽车产量x与油淬火—回火弹簧钢丝消费量y之间存在线性关系。建立一元回归模型,采用最小二乘法,回归出y=-18.656 9+0.095 968x,并对此线性关系进行R检验、t检验及F检验,检验结果表明二者线性关系明显、合理,模型整体可靠性较高。根据一元回归模型及汽车增速,预测未来5年油淬火—回火钢丝的消费量。The production and sales of oil quenching and tempering spring steel wire was driven by rapid development of China auto market. To discover the linear relation between auto production x and oil quenching and tempering spring steel wire consumption y through analysis. Single-element regression model was built,least square method was adopted,got y =- 18. 656 9 ＋ 0. 095 968 x,and R-test、t-test and F-test were performed on linear relation,test result showed： the linear relation was obvious and reasonable,entire reliability of the model was higher. The consumption of oil quenching and tempering in the next five years was forecasted based on the single-emement regression model and auto growth.

关 键 词：汽车市场 油淬火—回火弹簧钢丝 一元回归 R检验 T检验 F检验 

分 类 号：TG356.45[金属学及工艺—金属压力加工]