中澳自贸区贸易潜力的引力模型分析  

Research on Potentiality of China-Australia Free Trade Area Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：张燕[1] 高志刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》2015年第4期117-122,133,共7页journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(中国新疆与中亚国家的能源与贸易互联互通建设战略研究:13AZD083);新疆软科学项目(丝绸之路经济带框架下中国新疆与中亚国家区域经济合作战略研究:201442103)

摘　　要：加快实施自贸区战略,是我国积极运筹对外关系、实现对外战略目标的重要手段,在考察中澳两国双边贸易总额和贸易依存度的基础上,利用扩展的贸易引力模型对其贸易流量的影响因素以及进一步合作的贸易潜力进行研究。结果表明:国内生产总值、两国之间的距离对中国出口贸易影响最大,同时国内生产总值、距离和人均GDP对澳大利亚的出口贸易影响最大。此外,2013年双方贸易呈现"贸易不足"的现象,中澳双方贸易潜力尚未得到充分发挥,双边贸易提升空间很大。Accelerating the strategy of FTA is the important method for china to actively deal with outside connection and realize the diplomatic targets. Based on investigation of total trade value and degree of china-australia trade dependence, the article analyzed the influencing factors about trade flows and studied the potentiality of further cooperation by means of extending gravity model. The results showed that the two factors of GDP and distances had a great impact on chinese export trade. At the same time, the three factors of GDP, distance and per capita GDP had a great impact on the Australian. Otherwise, the trade of two countries had appeared the phenomenon of trade deficit in 2013, and the potentiality of Sino-Australian bilateral trades had not been give full playing. So there would be a large room for China-Australiabilateral trade.

关 键 词：中澳自贸区 贸易潜力 引力模型 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]