1644~1949年长江三角洲地区五种洪涝致灾因子组合特征分析  

ANALYSIS ON THE COMBINATORIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF 5FLOOD-FACTORS DURING 1644-1949IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

作　　者：崔玉娟[1] 张玉洁[1] 方修琦[1] 叶瑜[1,2] 张向萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2015年第4期697-704,共8页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50B07);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB950103);国家自然科学基金项目(40901099)

摘　　要：为研究洪涝灾害中不同洪涝致灾因子组合特征对灾害的决定作用,基于历史文献资料,对长江三角洲地区1644-1949年五种洪涝致灾因子（简称洪涝因子）——连续降水、台风、潮灾、上游洪水以及强降水——分类辨识并逐年赋值统计,得到1644-1949年长江三角洲逐年洪涝因子总值序列。结果表明：（1）影响洪涝的因子平均为1.66个,依据洪涝因子总值序列变化趋势,研究时段可划分为三阶段：阶段一,1644-1718年,三因子与四因子洪涝年多集中于这一阶段,该阶段均值高于全段均值与其它两阶段;阶段二,1719-1864年,该段波动较大,单一因子与二因子洪涝年发生频次较高,该段均值最低,其中单一因子洪涝年以强降水因子的影响为最多;阶段三,1865-1949年,大多出现单一因子与二因子洪涝年,整体波动较小,为较平稳的时段。（2）单一因子洪涝年发生频率最大,以强降水因子出现最多,二因子洪涝年发生频率次之,以连续降水-强降水比例最高,三因子洪涝年以连续降水-台风-强降水为最多,四因子洪涝年出现最多的为连续降水—台风—上游洪水—强降水的因子组合,未出现五因子洪涝年。（3）按灾情影响范围辨识了长江三角洲地区1644-1949年6个极端洪涝灾害年和7个极端台风灾害年,发现极端洪涝灾害年主要集中于阶段一中期和阶段二后半期,包括2个四因子年、3个三因子年和1个二因子年,都与连续降水和强降水有关;而极端台风灾害年多发生于阶段二前半期,多为台风与潮灾共同致灾。The research of historical flood is playing a more and more important role in the risk assessment and prediction in recent years.The research on interactions between flood disasters and flood factors in history could provide analogies for better understanding of the underlying mechanism and impacts of the current and future floods.To investigate the decisive role of different flood-factors interactions on flood hazards,the five types of flood-factors in the Yangtze River Delta during 1644-1949 including continuous rainfall,typhoon,tidal disaster,upstream flood and heavy rainfall were yearly identified and evaluated based on historic documents.And the yearly total flood-factors values sequence was accordingly obtained.The results showed that：（1）The average value of the five flood-factors is 1.66.Among them,88.56% of the years were shown as a single-flood-factor years and two-flood-factors years,and only 11.44% of the years were three and four-flood-factors years.There are no five-flood-factors year and only 1zero-floodfactor year occurred.Based on the total sequence of yearly flood-factors,the studied period was divided into three stages.Stage 1（1644-1718）contained most of the three-flood-factors years and four-floodfactors years,and the average of the flood-factors in this stage was higher than the mean average of the whole sequence as well as the other two stages;Stage 2（1719-1864）showed relatively large fluctuation.In this stage,single-flood-factor years and two-flood-factors years showed higher frequency of flood occurrence.The average of the flood-factors in this stage was the lowest.Heavy rainfall factor was the dominating factor in single-flood-factors years;Stage 3（1865-1949）consisted of mostly single-floodfactor years and two-flood-factors years showed a stable sequence with small fluctuation.（2）The singleflood-factor years,mostly showing heavy rainfall factor and then continuous rainfall factor,occurred most frequently in the whole period.The frequency of two-flood-factors years was

关 键 词：长江三角洲地区 洪涝因子 连续降水 强降水 台风 

分 类 号：P412[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]