中国财政扩张的消费倾斜效应研究  

Research on the Consumption Tilt Effect of China`s Fiscal Expansion

作　　者：严玉华[1] 王燕武[2] 

机构地区：[1]集美大学诚毅学院 [2]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,经济学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2016年第1期40-49,共10页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(13CJL017);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(20720151037);福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAS14009;JAS14395;JB13515S)的资助

摘　　要：新古典经济学认为,财政支出的扩张会挤占私人资源,产生负财富效应,进而抑制居民消费。基于微观主体的行为变化,本文认为财政扩张还可以通过提高居民消费的边际效用,形成消费倾斜效应,增加居民消费。通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型,本文分析了这两种效应的传递路径,并利用中国的数据进行模拟分析,发现:(1)消费者的跨期替代弹性越小,财政扩张的消费倾斜效应将越大;(2)中国政府支出在短期内会引起居民消费的上涨,长期中则会挤出居民消费。出现这种情况的部分原因是:近年来我国居民消费的跨期替代弹性大大增加,财政扩张的消费倾斜效应下降迅速。Neoclassical model suggests that the increase of government spending should crowd out private resources which might produce a negative wealth effect, and thereby inhibited the consumption. In this paper, considering on the microscopic behavior, we suggest that there may be an increase way for government spending to promote consumer＇s marginal utility, called consumption tilt effect, and then increase consumer spending. So, whether government spending should crowd out or squeeze in the resident consumption depends on the size of these two effects. In this paper, we build a DGE model to reveal the micro con- duction channels of these two effects, and use Chinese data to do numerical simulation analysis, then we find that： （ 1 ） the smaller of consumers inter-temporal consumption substitution elasticity, the greater consumption tih effect government spending will produce on resident consumption; （2） China＇s government spending will promote the resident consumption in the short term, but in the long term it will crowd out of resident consumption. The reason may lie in： recently China＇s inter-temporal consumption elasticity of substitution has significantly increased, so the consumption tilt effect of government spending has de- clined rapidly.

关 键 词：财政扩张 消费倾斜 跨期替代弹性 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]