石油冲击对我国宏观经济影响和货币政策调整  

The Influences of Oil Shocks on China's Macro- Economy and Dynamic Adjustments of Monetary Policy

作　　者：陈晓玲[1] 陈登科[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济学院 [2]复旦大学经济学院社会主义市场经济研究中心

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2016年第1期56-70,共15页China Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(13YJC790012);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(JBK120932)资助

摘　　要：本文建立结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型分析石油价格冲击对我国宏观经济的影响。研究结论表明石油价格上升对我国产出水平带来正面影响,而跨国面板数据回归显示,这可能与石油价格上升对我国主要贸易伙伴一般物价水平影响更大有关,这导致我国贸易条件相对改善相关;此外,我国货币政策调整呈现典型的"逆周期"操作特征,且利率"逆周期"特征更加明显;非线性石油价格情形下,主要宏观经济变量对石油冲击反应方向不变,但反应幅度减少,该情况下,货币政策的"不作为"优于微调。By constructing structural vector auto-regression model, this paper investigates the influences of oil price shocks on the macro-economy of China. Results show that output level is positively correlated with oil price. Cross-countries panel data analysis suggests that, relative to China, higher increase in its trade-partners＇ price level resulting from oil price shocks, which in turn improves our terms of trade, probably explains this abnormal phenomenon. The estimated results also signify that the adjustments of monetary policy variables are ＂anti-period＂ operated and interest rate is more ＂anti-period＂ op- erated. Relative to the linear specification, while the response directions of main macro-economy variables stay the same, the response scopes are reduced under nonlinear specification, and in such ease the ＂inactive＂ monetary policy is superior to the ＂active＂ one.

关 键 词：油价冲击 货币政策 非线性油价 

分 类 号：F764.1[经济管理—产业经济] F124F822.0