产业结构调整与税收增长:抑制还是促进  

Industrial Restructuring and Tax Revenue Growth: Inhibition or Promotion?

作　　者：李普亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]惠州学院经济管理系,广东惠州516007

出　　处：《税务与经济》2016年第1期67-74,共8页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：广东省高等学校优秀青年教师培养计划项目(项目编号:HZXY201403);广东省自然科学基金自由申请项目(项目编号:2015A030313676);惠州学院"创新强校工程"资助项目(项目编号:HZXY201403)

摘　　要：基于中国31个省份2007~2013年的面板数据实证检验产业结构调整对税收增长的效应,结果显示,以第三产业增加值占GDP比重和第三产业增加值与第二产业增加值之比作为产业结构调整的度量指标,则产业结构调整显著促进了税收收入总量增长,但却在一定程度上抑制了税收收入增长速度。分区域看,中西部地区产业结构调整对税收增长的积极效应明显小于东部地区。实证结果表明,产业结构调整与税收增长虽具有一定程度的兼容性,但第三产业发展对税收增长的贡献有待进一步提升,今后需要注重优化第三产业内部结构,以提质增效为前提,大力促进高科技含量、高附加值、高税收的现代服务业发展。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2007 to 2013,an empirical study is conducted to analyze the impact of industrial restructuring on tax revenue growth. The result shows that industrial restructuring could significantly promote the growth of total tax revenue,but it also could inhibit the growth rate of tax revenue to some extent if the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP and the ratio of tertiary industry to secondary industry are considered as indicators in industrial restructuring. Due to different regions,the positive effect of industrial restructuring on tax revenue growth in Midwest is less significant that that in eastern region. The empirical result indicates that industrial restructuring is compatible with tax revenue growth to some extent,and the development of tertiary industry could contribute to tax revenue growth. Therefore,it is important to optimize the internal structure of tertiary industry. It is also crucial to promote the development of modern service industry in terms of high tech,high value-adding and high tax revenue with the purpose of improving quality and efficiency.

关 键 词：产业结构 税收增长 实证检验 

分 类 号：F810.42[经济管理—财政学]