气候变暖及其对二氧化碳浓度敏感性的新认识——中国科学院战略性先导科技专项“应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题”之气候敏感性任务群研究进展  

Climate Warming and Its Sensitivity to CO_2 Concentrations——Progress on “Climate Sensitivity” Group of CAS Strategic Priority Research Program “Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues”

作　　者：廖宏[1] 任小波[2] 葛全胜[3] 严中伟[1] 林朝晖[1] 周天军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [2]中国科学院重大科技任务局,北京100864 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2016年第1期134-141,2,共8页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：中科院战略性先导科技专项气候敏感性任务群(XDA05080000;XDA05090000;XDA05100000;XDA05110000)

摘　　要：大气中二氧化碳(CO_2)浓度不断增加导致的全球气候变暖引起了国际社会的广泛关注。2009年哥本哈根大会已使2°C阈值从科学认知演变为政治共识,即未来全球平均气温相对工业革命前的增温应该控制在2°C之内,且相应的大气CO_2当量浓度不超过450 ppm。全球温度变化与温室气体浓度的对应关系,是减排目标的逻辑起点,本质上是CO_2排放空间的问题。碳专项气候敏感性任务群从获取气候变化基础数据、发展完善中科院气候系统模式、预估全球2°C增温对应的温室气体浓度及出现时间这3个方面进行了深入研究,取得了气候敏感性的一系列新认识。The increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and associated global warming are of worldwide concerns. In the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, many nations agreed to limit the increase in global temperature since pre-industrial times to below 2°C by initiating significant cuts in global emissions of greenhouse gases, assuming that the global warming of 2°C would occur if greenhouse gas concentrations rose above 450 ppm CO2 equivalent by volume. Climate sensitivity（the ratio of change in global mean surface temperature to that in CO2-equivalent concentration） is the scientific fundamental for policies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. To support the nation＇s mitigation and adaptation to climate change, a group of projects within the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program of ‘Climate Change： Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues＇ examine the key factors that influence climate sensitivity, including natural variability of climate, the feedback of clouds and water vapor, the cooling effect of atmospheric aerosols, and the uncertainties associated with the global climate simulations. During the past four and a half years, the CAS scientists have improved the understanding of warming in China and climate sensitivity in the following aspects：（1） New time series of temperature are obtained and analyzed to understand the amplitude, rate, periodicity, and abrupt change of temperature in China. Time series of temperature for different regions over the past 2000 years are reconstructed based on datasets from tree rings, lake sediments, ice cores, coral, etc., and the time series of observed temperature from meteorological stations over the past 100 years are compiled. For climate series over the past 100 years, a homogenization approach is used to remove systematic biases in the observation series because of relocation of meteorological stations or changes in observation instruments, rules, and methods. The homogenized temperatures show that the average temperature over China incre

关 键 词：气候变化 温室气体浓度 气候敏感性 中科院战略性先导科技专项 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]