应用周期图法分析1958～2012年甘肃省流行性乙型脑炎流行周期性  

Applying Periodic Graphics Method to Analyze Epidemic Periodicity of Japanese Encephalitis in Gansu Province,1958～2012

作　　者：王旭霞[1] 张晓曙[1] 李俊玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《中国疫苗和免疫》2015年第5期503-505,共3页Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization

基　　金：中华预防医学会公共卫生应用研究与疫苗可预防疾病科研项目(20102802):甘肃省河西地区流行性乙型脑炎及相关病媒生物监测;甘肃卫生行业科研计划项目(GSWST2010-10):甘肃省流行性乙型脑炎远期后遗症及疾病负担的回顾性研究

摘　　要：目的分析甘肃省流行性乙型脑炎（JE）的流行周期,为制定防控措施提供依据。方法利用甘肃省疾病预防控制中心1958~2012年疫情资料和法定传染病报告系统资料,运用周期图法,分析甘肃省JE流行周期。结果甘肃省55年的平均发病率0.4924/10万。振幅周期为22年,周期振动有统计学上的显著性意义（J=4.605,P〈0.01）。结论甘肃省JE流行具有显著的周期性,流行周期为22年。自然因素对乙脑发病影响较稳定。Objective Periodicity of Japanese Encephalitis（ JE） in Gansu Province in 1958 ~ 2012 was analyzed for making strategies of disease control and prevention. Methods JE data was from Epidemic Data in Gansu（ 1958 ~ 2003） and National Notifiable Diseases Registry System（ NNDRS,2004 ~2012）. Periodic graphics method was used in this study. Results The incidence rate of JE during 55 years was 0. 4924 per 100 000 population in average,with an epidemic interval of 22 years; there was statistical significance in periodic vibration（ J = 4. 605,P 0. 01）. Conclusion JE in Gansu Province was of a significant epidemic periodicity,and the epidemic interval was 22 years. The impact of natural factors on the incidence was stable.

关 键 词：周期图法 流行性乙型脑炎 流行 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学] R511.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]