奥巴马政府的对朝政策研究  

Research on the DPRK Policy of the Obama Administration

作　　者：孙国强[1,2] 黄凤志[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学行政学院 [2]河北金融学院社科部

出　　处：《当代亚太》2015年第6期101-132,158-159,共32页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：2013年国家社科基金重点项目"东北亚地缘政治局势新变化与中国的战略应对研究"(项目编号:13AGJ003)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：通过从政策内容、背景及成效三个方面对奥巴马政府对朝政策的研究成果进行梳理,文章发现,当前学界对这一问题的研究存在三个方面的不足:一是"战略忍耐"不足以概括奥巴马政府对朝政策的全部内容;二是对奥巴马政府制定对朝政策的原因解释仍停留在美朝双边层面;三是对奥巴马政府的朝鲜政策对中国造成的影响缺乏系统研究。为弥补上述不足,文章在政策内容的界定方面构建了"四位一体"框架,即从多边层面、同盟层面、美中层面以及单边层面概括了奥巴马政府对朝政策的主要内容;在政策制定的原因解释方面,文章引入了政策环境因素,通过探讨朝鲜半岛和东北亚区域环境出现的新变化,以期更全面地解释奥巴马政府对朝政策的成因;在政策成效方面,对奥巴马政府的朝鲜政策对中国造成的影响做出了判断。最后,文章总结了奥巴马政府对朝政策与前任政府存在的区别,并对其剩余任期的对朝政策走向做出了大致预测。Through combing the research literature of the DPRK Policy of the Obama Administration from three aspects,including policy content,context,and effectiveness,this paper has find that there are three deficiencies in the current academic research on this issue.Firstly, 'strategic patience' is not enough to summarize the full content of the DPRK policy of the Obama Administration;Secondly,the explanation for policymaking of the DPRK policy of the Obama Administration still remains in the bilateral level;Thirdly,the impact of the DPRK policy of the Obama Administration on China is lack of systemic research.In order to remedy the above shortcomings,this paper build a 'four-in-one' framework in defining the policy content,including the multilateral level,alliance level,SinoAmerican level and unilateral level;In terms of the explanation for policymaking,this paper introduced a factor of policy environment,by exploring the new changes in Northeast Asia and Korean Peninsula,in order to explain the reasons for the Obama administration's policy toward the DPRK more comprehensively.In the aspect of policy effectiveness,this paper has made a judgment on the impact of the DPRK policy of the Obama Administration on China.Finally,the paper has summarized the differences of the DPRK policy between the Obama administration and its predecessors,and made a general forecast on the DPRK policy in the remaining term of the Obama Administration.

关 键 词：奥巴马政府 对朝政策 战略忍耐 针对性威慑 东北亚安全 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]