安徽阜阳市大雾天气的潜势预报方法  

Research on the Method of Fog Potential Forecast in Fuyang of Anhui

作　　者：张庆奎[1] 项阳[1] 王莹[1] 王璐[1] 卢春婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省阜阳市气象局,安徽阜阳236000

出　　处：《干旱气象》2015年第6期1045-1049,共5页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：安徽省气象局预报员专项(KY201306);阜阳市社科规划课题(FSK2014023)共同资助

摘　　要：利用2002～2011年安徽阜阳市逐日地面、高空观测资料和NCEP/NCAR FNL再分析资料,分析大雾发生时各预报因子的分布特征,确定预报因子的阈值及消空指标,建立基于PP法思想和指标叠套方法的阜阳市大雾天气潜势预报模型。通过2013～2014年逐日业务化运行检验,基于EC细网格数值预报产品的大雾天气潜势预报模型取得了较好的预报效果,其TS评分为0.49、准确率为0.91,说明该模型具有较好业务应用价值。Based on the daily surface observation data,sounding data and NCEP / NCAR FNL reanalysis data during 2002- 2014,the distribution characteristics of meteorological factors during fog appearance were analyzed in Fuyang of Anhui. Then the six forecast factors were selected,and their thresholds and negative indexes were determined by the cumulative frequency method. On this basis that the potential forecast model of fog in Fuyang of Anhui was built by Perfect Prognosis and index overlap methods based on the fine mesh numerical products of European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts（ EC）. The assessment of fog potential forecast during2013- 2014 showed that the forecast model had obtained a good forecast effect with the threat score rate of 0. 49,the accuracy rate of0. 91,the false rate of 0. 38 and the fail rate of 0. 30. Therefore,this model was worthy of application in fog potential forecast.

关 键 词：大雾 PP法 指标叠套法 潜势预报 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]