中国国防支出需求的影响因素分析:1978—2010  

Demand Influence Factors for Chinese Defense Expenditure :Empirical Analysis based on 1978—2010

作　　者：夏庆[1] 孙兆斌[1] 刘思琦[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军军事经济学院基础部,武汉430035 [2]中国人民解放军军事经济学院国防经济系,武汉430035

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第3期115-122,共8页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金资助项目"国防支出结构优化与评价研究"(14BJY154);全军军事经济研究中心基金资助项目"运用MS-VAR模型从非线性角度研究国防费投入和国民经济建设之间的关联性"(QJJSJJYJZX2012KTLX-056)

摘　　要：以1978—2010年的国防支出和GDP实际值为样本数据,利用新古典国防支出需求模型和MS-AR模型,通过结构性分析发现:国防发展战略是影响中国国防支出需求结构性突变的主要因素。国防发展战略和上期国防支出是影响国防支出需求变化的重要解释变量。国防支出受国防发展战略的影响大致经历了"负增长期""低增长期""补偿性增长期"三个不同阶段。在不同阶段,上期国防支出和当期GDP对国防支出的影响发生了显著变化:1989年后当期GDP和当期国防支出的关系由负向转为正向,1997年后上期国防支出对当期国防支出的贡献增加了3.56倍。实证结果证明:近年来国防支出的较快增长是对过去历史欠账的补偿性增长,是国防建设和经济建设协调发展的必然结果。This article has used data sets for defense expenditure and real GDP over the period 1978—2010 in China, and resorts to new-classic defense expenditure demand model and MS-AR model to estimate demand functions for military expenditure.Qualitative evidences suggest defense strategy gives rise to sudden structural change of defense expenditure demand, furthermore,defense strategy and lagged defense expenditure are more important dependent variables. We also identify that within this period defense expenditure dynamic consisting of three phases, separately 'a phase of negative growth, a phase of low growth and a phase of compensatory growth.' In different phases, the coefficients of lagged defense expenditure and current GDP were quite different: in year 1989, the coefficient of current GDP changed from positive to negative. Meanwhile, in 1997 the contribution of lagged defense expenditure to independent variable increased 3.56 times than before. Thus, the empirical results demonstrate the rapid growth of defense expenditure in recent years is just compensating for historical debts, and it is the result of the harmonious development of Chinese defense and economic construction.

关 键 词：中国国防支出需求 MS-AR模型 结构性变化 

分 类 号：E25[军事—军事理论] F812.45[经济管理—财政学]