中国房价有泡沫吗?  

Does China's Housing Prices Have Bubble?

作　　者：李永刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计学院,上海201620

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第4期98-104,共7页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：央财国际贸易重点学科带头人培养计划";2015年度上海立信会计学院青年教师科研基金项目"基于破解土地财政依赖的房地产税改革研究

摘　　要：首先选取了房价收入比、房地产价格增长率/实际GDP增长率、房地产投资额/固定资产投资额、房地产开发贷款增长率/金融机构贷款总额增长率和房地产开发企业待开发土地面积/本年土地购置面积等5个测度指标进行分析;然后通过计算每年同比增长率,将历年数据进行直观对比。研究发现:中国房价收入比大大超过了国际公认的房价标准,中国房地产行业投资过热,中国房地产开发贷款增速较快,房地产开发企业"囤地"意图比较明显,中国房价泡沫比较明显;最后,从房产信贷政策、土地供给、遏制投机性购房、增加特殊房型供给税收政策调整等5个方面提出了抑制中国房价泡沫的政策建议。This paper first selects the price earnings ratio, real estate price growth/real GDP growth, real estate investment/fixed asset investment, real estate development loan growth/growth rate of total loans from financial institutions, developed land area to be developed/year land acquisition area by real estate development enterprises, which are the five measurement indicators, for analysis.Then, by calculating the year on year growth rate, the historical data are compared directly. The results show that the ratio of Chinese real estate earnings is much higher than internationally accepted standard; there is overheated investment in China 's real estate industry; the real estate development enterprises ' 'hoarding' intent is very obvious; China's housing prices have obvious bubbles. Finally, from the perspectives of real estate credit policies, land supply, curbing speculation, increasing supply, suppressing opportunist investment and tax policy adjustments, suggestions are made to suppress China 's housing price bubbles.

关 键 词：房价 房地产泡沫 政策建议 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]