分化复苏的世界经济:新引擎、新风险、新常态——2016年世界经济分析与展望  

2016 World Economy: Divergent Recovery with New Engines,New Risks and The New Normal

作　　者：张天桂[1] 盛垒[1] 薛安伟[1] 周琢[1] 张广婷[1] 刘芳[1] 陈陶然[1] 姚勤华[1] 权衡[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所宏观分析组

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2016年第1期3-27,135,共25页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：2015年世界经济深受低增长、低通胀、低利率和高债务的困扰,复苏脆弱,增长艰难。影响2016年世界经济增长的重要变量包括:大宗商品价格下跌与全球通缩预期加剧、TPP经贸新规则与世界投资贸易新转移、新兴经济体资产负债失衡与主权债务危机、全球宏观经济政策冲突与负面外溢效应、跨国公司诚信危机与微观治理机制缺陷、中国经济供给侧改革与世界经济创新发展、互联网创新与网络安全的抑制作用、国际恐怖主义和世界经济增长新阴影。2016年世界经济增长率预计为3.24%,中国增速可能降至6.78%;复苏依旧难言乐观,分化加剧成为趋势。世界经济从再平衡走向新常态,中国经济新常态及中美经济新常态决定世界经济新常态。在新常态下,重塑世界经济复苏增长的新格局开始浮现,驱动世界经济长期增长的新动力加快孕育,促进世界经济转型增长的新规则正在重构。In review of 2015,the world economy is plagued by low growth,low inflation,low interest rates and high debts,and the recovery is fragile with tough growth. In 2016,key variables shaping the global economic growth includes: lower commodity prices and global deflation expectation,new trade rules of TPP and the transfer of world trade and investment,imbalances in balance sheets of emerging economies and sovereign debt crisis,global macroeconomic policy conflicts with negative spillovers,multinational corporation credit crisis and micro governance mechanism defects,the supply side reform of Chinese economy and the innovation developing in world economy,internet innovation and the inhibition of network security,international terrorism and new shadows of world economy. According to the forecast made in this paper,the world economic recovery in the coming year is still hardly to be optimistic,with a trend of increasing divergence. The world economic growth rate in 2016 is expected to be 3. 24%,while 6. 78% for China. In the end,the paper argues that the world economy is in the phase from rebalance to the new normal,which depends on the new normal of Chinese economy and that of Sino-US economy. In the new normal,the new pattern of reshaping the world economy recovery is emerging,and the new driving force to long-term growth of world economy is being bred,and the new rules of promoting transformation of world economy is reconstructing.

关 键 词：世界经济分析 分化复苏 新引擎 新风险 新常态 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]