人民币国际化进程中汇率变动的经济效应研究  

Study on the Economic Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility in the Process of RMB Internationalization

作　　者：沙文兵[1] 肖明智[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]复旦大学管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2016年第1期39-47,135,共9页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"人民币国际化对中国经济内外均衡动态影响研究"(项目编号:11CJL035)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：人民币成为国际化货币的条件日渐成熟,但以往关于人民币汇率对中国经济影响方面的研究,均没有考虑到这一重大外部环境变化对汇率变动经济效应的影响。文章基于一个中国经济的动态可计算一般均衡模型,并加入价格粘性模块和资本账户模块,分析了在资本账户开放与否两类大环境下人民币升值和贬值给中国经济带来的影响。模拟结果表明,在资本账户开放的条件下,人民币升值对中国经济的影响更为有利;而在资本账户管制的条件下,人民币贬值的影响相对有利。The process of RMB internationalization has already begun. This process will have a significant impact on the economic effects of RMB exchange rate volatility,but previous studies have not considered this changing environment. In this essay,we analyze the impact of RMB appreciation and depreciation on China's economy under two scenarios,capital account liberalization and capital account control,based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with price stickiness modle and capital account modle. The simulation results show that under the condition of capital account liberalization,RMB appreciation will have more advantageous impact on China's economy; and under the condition of capital account control,RMB depreciation will have more favorable impact on China's economy.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 资本账户开放 汇率变动 动态CGE模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]