中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线研究  

Studies on the New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve of China:Based on the Statistic Data of The People's Bank of China from 1999 to 2014

作　　者：黄正新[1] 黄玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《宏观质量研究》2015年第4期58-67,共10页Journal of Macro-quality Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13BJL025)的资助

摘　　要：引入房地产价格为供给冲击,重新构建中国新凯恩斯菲利普斯四因素混合模型,研究表明:在NKPC模型中,通胀预期、通胀惯性、供给冲击和产出缺口都同通胀之间存在着相互影响。通胀预期影响程度最大且持续时间最长。房地产价格对通胀的影响较为显著、时滞较长且政策效应缓慢。通胀自身具有较大惯性与波动性。产出缺口与通胀相互影响不大但持续时间较长,边际成本和通胀之间相互影响并非显著等,具有锚定公众预期、稳定通胀的政策意义。This paper creates a New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve containing four factors of China by introducing the real property price as supply shocks.The research shows that in the NKPC model,there is a mutual influence among inflation expectation,inflation inertia,supply shocks,GDP gap and inflation.The influence of inflation expectation is the largest and longest.Real estate prices impact on inflation is significant,and the effect of policies slow long time lag.Inflation itself has the inertia and fluctuation.The influence between GDP gap and inflation is not very large but has the long duration.The influence between marginal cost and inflation is not significant.

关 键 词：新凯恩斯主义 菲利普斯混合模型 通胀预期 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F224