土地供给价格弹性、预期与房价波动分析  

An Analysis of Price Elasticity of Land Supply,Expectation and Housing Price Volatility

作　　者：高晓娜[1] 兰宜生[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《商业研究》2016年第1期43-50,共8页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目;项目编号:13BJY056

摘　　要：本文利用我国2004-2012年35个大中城市面板数据和2SLS估计方法,对35个大中城市的土地供给存量弹性及土地供给流量弹性进行估算,考察土地供给弹性与房价波动之间的关系。研究发现:我国土地供给价格弹性在城市之间表现出巨大差异,东部地区的土地供给存量弹性及土地供给流量弹性均低于中西部地区;土地供给存量弹性对于房价波动没有显著影响,提高土地供给流量弹性可以显著降低房价的波动幅度;在土地供给流量弹性低的城市,预期对房价的推动作用更大。The paper estimates the stock elasticity of land supply and flow elasticity of land supply by using 2SLS method and panel data of 35 major cities in China between 2004 and 2012 , to study the relationship between the elasticity of land supply and housing prices fluctuation. The conclusions are as follows ： the price elasticity of land supply shows great difference between cities, the stock elasticity and flow elasticity of land supply in the eastern regions are all lower than those in middle and western regions ; the stock elasticity of land supply has no significant effect on the fluctuation of hous- ing price and enhancing the flow elasticity of land supply can significantly reduce the fluctuation of housing price ; expec- tation promotes housing prices more in the cities with low flow elasticity of land supply.

关 键 词：土地供给 价格弹性 预期 房价 

分 类 号：F061.6[经济管理—政治经济学]