外来观赏植物大花金鸡菊在中国的潜在地理分布预测  

Prediction of potential geographic distribution of alien species Coreopsis grandiflora in China

作　　者：彭冶[1] 王焱 顾慧[1] 叶建仁[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学生物与环境学院,江苏省有害生物入侵预防与控制重点实验室,江苏南京210037 [2]上海市林业总站,上海200072

出　　处：《南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第1期53-58,共6页Journal of Nanjing Forestry University：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：上海辰山植物园引进植物的风险评估、检疫控制策略及技术研究项目(JB119927);江苏高校协同创新计划项目(CIP);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：大花金鸡菊（Coreopsis grandifloraHogg.）被引种后,因具有较强繁殖和适应能力,在我国山东等地区成为入侵物种,对当地植物多样性造成了一定威胁。笔者运用Maxent生态学模型,基于全球海拔变量及19个生物环境变量,结合地理信息系统ArcGIS,对大花金鸡菊在中国的潜在地理分布区做了预测。结果表明,大花金鸡菊在我国的适生范围主要集中在98°~125°E、21.5°~43°N水分充沛、温度适宜的暖温带、亚热带地区。其中,华东、华中大部,即江苏、安徽、上海市、山东等地为大花金鸡菊的集中分布区,为高适生区;西南、华南北部与华东、华中地区相接的区域,以及华北南部邻接华东地区的局部地区为中适生区,西南、华南南部地区则为低适生区;其他地区不适于大花金鸡菊生长。ROC曲线分析表明,Maxent生态位模型预测大花金鸡菊潜在地理分布的训练数据和测试数据的AUC值分别为0.960和0.965,达到了极高的精度。各环境变量重要性的刀切法检验表明,影响大花金鸡菊地理分布的环境变量依次为年均温、年平均降水量和最冷季平均温度。根据Maxent模型预测结果,以及大花金鸡菊的生物学特性和在中国的入侵现状,在我国中东部地区需要采取一定的有效措施对该物种的扩张进行控制。As a kind of introductive alien plant,Coreopsis grandiflorahas become an invasive species in Shandong andother regions of China due to its strong reproductive capacity and ability to adapt, and has threatened the local ecosys-tem. Based on global altitude variable and 19 climate variables, the potential distribution ofC. grandiflorain China waspredicted by maximum entropy（Maxent） models and geographic information system（ArcGis）. Results showed that thesuitable distribution ofC. grandiflorain China ranged 98°-125°E, 21 5°-43°N, the warm temperate and subtropicalzone.C. grandifloramainly concentrated in eastern China and central China including Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanghai andShandong. The southern China and southwest of China were middle or low suitable areas. The other parts of China wereunfavorable for the growth ofC. grandiflora. The ROC carve indicated that the AUC Value based on the datas of treatingand testing were 0 960, 0 965, respectively, showed high predictive accuracy. With the highest contributionpercentages, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, mean temperature of coldest quarter were the threemost important environmental factors influencing the distribution of the species. Based on the results of Maxent model, itsbiological characteristics and invasive status in China, it is necessary to take some effective measure to restrict the exten-ding of the species in central and east China.

关 键 词：大花金鸡菊 Maxent生态位模型 潜在分布区预测 入侵物种 

分 类 号：S718[农业科学—林学]