基于相对值法的区域电网停电事故自组织特性分析  

Self-Organization Characteristic Analysis of Blackouts in China's Regional Power Grid Based on Relative Value

作　　者：于群[1] 石良[1] 郭剑波[2] 贺庆[2] 易俊[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学电气与自动化工程学院,山东青岛266590 [2]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192

出　　处：《中国电力》2016年第1期91-95,共5页Electric Power

基　　金：国家电网公司大电网重大专项资助项目课题(SGCC-MPLG001-2012)~~

摘　　要：考虑到电网的规模处于不断增长的过程中,给出了用电网总装机容量对损失负荷取相对值,来分析电网停电事故自组织临界特性的方法。通过对东北、西北电网1981—2002年和1981—2010年2个时间段内停电事故数据相对值的分析,不同历史时段的大规模停电事故服从幂律分布,进一步证明了中国区域电网具有自组织临界性的典型特征。该方法用于事故损失数据处理后,排除了电网随时间生长对自组织临界特性的影响因素,便于以事故损失数据对电网危险程度进行分级,同时还可以对不同规模的电网事故数据进行横向比较,得出的宏观结果可以供电网的调度运行及规划部门参考。A relative value index that divided power loss data by power grid capacity, is proposed to analyze power grid blackouts characteristics of self-organization criticality with the continuous growth of power grid scale. According to analysis of Northeast and Northwest power grid blackout load loss relative values, the data of power grid blackouts in 1981-2002 and 1981-2010 time periods follow power-law distribution, which further proves that China’s regional power grid has typical characteristics of self-organization criticality. The application of proposed method rules out effect of power grid growth on its characteristics of self-organization criticality. A more accurate risk rating of power grids is obtained from power loss relative value. At the same time, this method can also compare blackout data of power grid in different sizes, and the result can be used as a reference for power dispatching and planning.

关 键 词：电力系统 停电事故 自组织临界性 幂律特性 相对值法 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]