我国体育慈善事业的系统动力学模型及其仿真实证研究  

Empirical Research of Chinese Sports Charity Based on System Dynamics Model and Simulation

作　　者：张林玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学商学院,成都610064

出　　处：《体育与科学》2016年第1期93-99,共7页Sports & Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目<建设体育强国进程中非营利体育组织统筹发展研究>;项目号:10ATY002

摘　　要：以系统动力学理论和方法为工具,分析了我国体育慈善系统构成要素,以体育慈善者和体育慈善经费为核心变量,通过绘制因果关系图、流图,编写结构方程,构建了我国体育慈善系统动力学模型,并利用Vensim 5.4aPLE软件进行仿真预测,得到了2005—2050年的发展趋势图。此外,通过参数的调整与对比为体育慈善政策设计提供导向。结果表明,影响我国体育慈善行为的首要因素是利他主义,为使我国体育慈善事业快速发展,培育与增强民众的体育慈善奉献意识比建立利益诱导机制更加有效,可以通过加大宣传、深入教育、完善制度等方式来实现。Based on system dynamics theory and method, this paper analyzes the factors of Chinese sports charity. Taking the people and funds of sports charity as the core variable, draw the causal relationship diagram and flow diagram, write equations, and build the whole system dynamics model of Chinese sports charity. Using the Vensim 5. 4a PLE software as tool, simulate this model from 2005--2040 and get the trend graph of Chinese sports charity development. The result indicates that the altruism is the primary fac- tor affecting the sports charity. In order to trigger Chinese sports charity rapid development in the future, strengthening the citizens＇ consciousness of sports charity is more efficient than building benefit induction mechanism. Through increasing publicity, improving education system, and perfecting policies and regulations can achieve this goal.

关 键 词：体育慈善 系统动力学 仿真 体育慈善意识 政策设计 

分 类 号：G80-053[文化科学—运动人体科学]