微博谣言传播模型与影响力评估研究  

Dissemination model and impact evaluation of rumor in microblog

作　　者：向卓元[1] 陈宇玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《科研管理》2016年第1期39-47,共9页Science Research Management

摘　　要：现时微博谣言泛滥,对现实社会危害巨大。为了科学控制微博不实信息的传播,本研究根据微博网络谣言传播特点以及病毒传播模型,提出具有怀疑与反谣言机制的有向传播模型SIR-CO,并进一步提出谣言源影响力评估算法,实时监控微博谣言造成的社会影响力,在此基础上,采取基于Agent的建模仿真方法对微博谣言传播进行模拟仿真。分析结果表明:内容信服度、节点影响度以及抑制时机是影响微博谣言传播与控制的重要因子;谣言源影响力与传播数、感染节点数以及等级影响度分布皆存在相关关系,最后趋于稳定状态。基于仿真分析结果,建议控制微博谣言传播时,可运用目标免疫策略阻止谣言向外传播,并采取多点侧面慢性策略减低谣言的同化作用。At present, microblog rumors run rampant and cause great damage to the real society. For the purpose of controlling rumors dissemination on microblog network scientifically, in this research, a directed dissemination model with skepticism and anti - rumor mechanism named SIR - CO is proposed according to the virus dissemination model and the features of rumors dis- semination on microblog network. Then, in order to monitor the social impact of microblog rumors, an impact evaluation algo- rithm of rumor source is proposed. On this basis, use Agent - based modeling and simulation methods to simulate the dissemina- tion of rumors on microblog. Analysis of results lead to conclusions ： convincing degree of rumor content, influence degree of nodes and time of interventional inhibition is the significant factor for rumors dissemination and control in mieroblog; the impact of rumor source, with a final stable state, is related to the number of spread, the number of infected nodes and the distribution of in- fluence degree. Based on the simulation analysis results, it＇ s recommended that, when controlling mieroblog rumor dissemina- tion, use the target immunization strategy to prevent rumors spreading out and adopt multipoint side chronic strategy to reduce ru- mors assimilation.

关 键 词：微博 谣言传播 SIR-CO模型 影响力评估 AGENT仿真 

分 类 号：TP39[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] P393.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]