区域经济β趋同的空间计量检验  

Spatial Econometric Test of Regional Economic ? Convergence

作　　者：张可云[1] 王裕瑾[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学区域与城市经济研究所

出　　处：《南开学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第1期89-96,共8页Nankai Journal:Philosophy,Literature and Social Science Edition

摘　　要：依据β趋同空间计量模型,利用山东省17个地级市1995-2013年的面板数据对山东经济增长的趋同及其影响因素的验证表明:山东省地级市经济增长呈现显著的β趋同特征,政府消费支出水平对经济增长具有显著的负效应;固定资产投资率、产业结构优化水平和城市化水平均对山东省经济增长产生显著的正效应;人口增长的影响系数较小,人口红利优势逐渐降低。新常态下优化山东省经济空间格局、促进区域均衡发展应重新定位省会经济圈和山东半岛经济区的产业分工,实现政策支持的软环境构建,发展创新产业应成为新的经济增长点。Based on β convergence spatial econometric model and the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province between 1995 and 2013, an analysis of the convergence and influential factors in Shangdong＇ s economic growth shows that β convergence is a distinct feature of economic growth among cities in Shandong. It shows that government expendi- ture has distinct negative impacts on economic growth. Fixed asset investment rate, industrial structure optimization and urbanization have significant positive effects on economic growth. The impact of population growth coefficient is limited, and the advantages of the demographic dividend decline gradually. Under this New Normal condition, Shandong Province should optimize the spatial distribution of its economy, redefine the industrial division between its Capital Eco- nomic Zone and Shandong Peninsular Economic Zone, and promote balanced regional development. It should also sup- port the construction of soft environment with related policies, and cultivate innovative industries to promote new eco- nomic growth.

关 键 词：Β趋同 空间计量 面板数据 新常态 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]