市场化减排政策对我国钢铁行业的影响——基于偏均衡建模的分析  

Impact of Market-oriented Abatement Policy to China's Iron and Steel Industry——Based on Partial Equilibrium Modeling

作　　者：李远[1,2] 朱磊[1] 范英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100190

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2016年第1期139-153,共15页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"不确定条件下低碳能源技术投资综合评价模型理论与应用研究"(基金号:71273253);国家自然科学基金"我国统一碳市场建立的条件;机制设计与社会经济影响分析"(基金号:71210005);国家科技支撑计划"碳排放交易支撑技术研究与示范"(基金号:2012BAC2012-04-2)

摘　　要：论文运用偏均衡建模的方法,分析了市场化减排政策对于我国钢铁行业竞争力的影响。论文采用基于减排技术组合的减排成本曲线,分析了不同的障碍情景下,引入市场化减排政策对于钢铁价格、进出口价格、进出口量、净出口、利润和排放等关键参数的影响。文章发现市场化减排政策尽管可以大幅度地降低CO2排放量,但是对钢铁行业的竞争力存在一定程度的负面影响,主要体现在净出口和利润的降低。而降低减排技术的采用障碍会弱化减排政策实施对钢铁行业的负面效果。此外,通过对两种边境调节措施的分析(出口补贴和进口品征税)发现,出口补贴政策对于行业净出口和利润的积极作用非常微弱,相较而言进口品征税政策对于行业净出口和利润的提高作用更为明显,但同时二者均会轻微的削弱减排效果。Based on a partial equilibrium model we analyze the impact of market - oriented abatement policy to China＇s iron and steel industry. Through the abatement cost which based on abatement technologies portfolio, we analyze the impact of emission trading scheme to the iron and steel price, import and export price, imports and exports, net exports, profits and emissions under different barrier scenar- ios. We discover that the market- oriented abatement policy could reduce CO2 emission substantially, but it will also weaken the com- potiveness of China＇s iron and steel industry, expressed by the declination of net exports and profits. If we reduce the adoption barriers of abatement technologies, these negative effects will be offset partly. At the same time , through analyzing two border adjustment policy, we find the positive effect to competiveness from export subsidy is very slightly, and import tax policy will obviously improve the net exports and profits of China＇s iron and steel industry.

关 键 词：市场化减排 中国钢铁行业 竞争力 偏均衡 边境调节措施 减排成本 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]