台风及暴雨对电网故障率的时空影响  

Space-time Impact of Typhoon and Rainstorm on Power Grid Fault Probability

作　　者：吴勇军[1,2] 薛禹胜[2] 谢云云[1,2] 王昊昊[2] 段荣华[3] 黄伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏省南京市210094 [2]南瑞集团公司(国网电力科学研究院),江苏省南京市211106 [3]云南电力调度控制中心,云南省昆明市650011

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2016年第2期20-29,83,共11页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228204);国家自然科学基金重点项目(61533010);中泰合作基金项目(5151101161);云南电网公司科技项目(YDTZ-F2014-105)~~

摘　　要：分析了台风及暴雨影响电力设备故障率的途径;指出停电防御系统为此应拓展采集的数据,包括宏观的天气预报信息及就地的气象数据;提出上述自然灾害中的电网故障率时空预警框架。根据气象信息,结合环境信息及地形地貌信息,预测台风及暴雨的时空演变趋势,并按地理特征修正,在线预报恶劣气象直接或通过山洪、滑坡和泥石流等次生灾害造成输电线断线、倒塔、闪络等故障率的改变。通过自然灾害与电力系统稳定分析模块的接口,将在线安全分析由针对不变的预想故障集改进为跟踪灾害动态修正的预想故障集,使停电防御系统对台风及暴雨灾害具备一定的预警及决策支持能力。The ways of electrical equipment fault probability influenced by typhoons and rainstorms are analyzed in detail.The scope of data acquisition of blackout defense system is expanded to macroscale meteorological forecast information as well as local meteorological data.A spatial-temporal early-warning method against these natural disasters is proposed.Firstly,according to the information of meteorology,environment,topography and geomorphology,the spatial-temporal evolution trends of typhoons and rainstorms can be predicted and modified.Then,the probability of faults such as broken lines,collapsed towers,flashover caused by adverse weather or derivative disasters such as landslide,debris flow and flood is forecasted on line.Through the module interface between natural disaster evaluation and power system stability analysis,the predictive fault set of online security analysis which was fixed can now be dynamically modified.Therefore,the blackout defense system against typhoon and rainstorm has definite ability of early warning and decision support.

关 键 词：停电防御 自然灾害 台风灾害 暴雨灾害 微地形 故障率 在线评估 安全预警 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TM727[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]