C波段雷达在新疆区域数值预报系统中的应用初探  

A Study of the Application of C-band Radar Observation in Numerical Forecasting System in the Xinjiang Region

作　　者：马秀梅[1] 欧登格力 辛渝[1] 尹金方[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2015年第6期19-26,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国沙漠气象科学研究基金:"新疆CINRAD/CC雷达资料在WRF-3DVAR中的应用研究";中国气象科学研究院基本业务专项(2014R016;2015Z003)共同资助

摘　　要：基于新疆区域数值预报系统(Desert Oasis Gobi Rapid Analysis Forecast System,下称DOGRAFS),开展了同化C波段雷达资料对2010年10月6日发生在新疆的一次强降水过程预报结果影响的试验分析。试验设计包括不同化任何资料、同化常规资料、同化雷达反射率因子、同化雷达径向风、同时同化反射率因子和径向风5组试验,重点分析了雷达资料同化对此次天气过程降水、温度以及风速模拟效果的影响。结果表明:(1)同化雷达径向风和同时同化径向风和反射率因子相对于其他3组试验,对降水预报的TS和ETs评分更高;(2)相对于其他3组试验,同化雷达径向风和同时同化径向风和反射率因子对模式垂直方向上的温度、风速预报偏差具有一定的改善效果;(3)对于地面2 m温度和10 m风速而言,同化常规观测资料比其他4组试验预报的平均偏差和均方根误差更小;其它4组试验误差相当,差别不明显,表明同化雷达对近地面层温度和风的影响不明显。本研究旨在探索C波段雷达观测资料在新疆区域数值预报系统中的适用性,为今后雷达观测资料在业务系统中的应用提供参考。The effects of C-band radar data assimilation on a heavy rainfall event, which happenedon October6 th,2010, has been conducted based on the Regional Numerical Forecasting System inXinjiang（Desert Oasis Gobi Rapid Analysis Forecast System, DOGRAFS）. Focusing on the effectsof radar data simulation on precipitation, temperature and wind speed effect, five experiments weredesigned in this study, including（1）control run with no data assimilation（Ctl）,（2）conventionaldata assimilation（Con）,（3）radar reflectivity assimilation only,（4）radial velocity assimilation only,and（5） both reflectivity and radial velocity assimilation. The results suggest that：（1）comparedamong each other, there is higher precipitation Ts and ETs scores with radial velocity assimilationonly and both radial velocity and reflectivity assimilation;（2）the assimilation of radial velocity, andboth radial velocity and reflectivity have been improved in temperature and wind forecast accuracyin the vertical direction considering the temperature and wind speed prediction mean error（ME）and root mean square error（RMSE）;and（3）with regard to the 2 m temperature and 10 m windabove ground level, the experiments with conventional data assimilation have the least ME andRMSE error, while the other four group experiments have fairly same errors, suggesting that theradar assimilation has little influence on the surface temperature and wind prediction. This studyaims to explore the C-band radar application in Xinjiang regional numerical forecasting system, andprovides a guidance for radar observation application in the operational system in the future.

关 键 词：区域数值预报系统 C波段雷达 三维变分同化 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]