产业结构对区域碳排放的影响——基于多国数据的实证分析  

The impact of the industrial structure on regional carbon emission:Empirical evidence across countries

作　　者：原嫄[1] 席强敏[2] 孙铁山[3] 李国平[3] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学人文与经法学院,西安710072 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300031 [3]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《地理研究》2016年第1期82-94,共13页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2012CB955802);国家自然科学基金项目(41171099)

摘　　要：人类行为所引起的全球气候变暖趋势已经无可争议,所带来的影响可能对全球发展方向和生产方式产生重大的作用。在建立产业结构对区域碳排放的影响模型基础上,在全球尺度下进行计量分析,主要结论:第一,理论模型证明区域碳排放随经济发展推进具有先上升后下降的不可抗的基本客观规律,故减排应从降低峰值高度、促进峰值提前等方向入手;第二,实证结果说明第二产业份额对碳排放的影响强度为恒正值,而服务业的影响强度逐步降低,促使第二产业向服务业的份额流动最终将带来整体影响强度的下降;第三,产业结构调整所引起的碳排放变动强度具有明显差异,产业升级对于中高等发展水平国家的减排效率明显高于极高发展水平国家,且中等发展水平国家将在更早的发展阶段迎来碳排放高峰。Global warming is a direct consequence of the increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, which is caused by the abnormal increase in carbon emission levels. Such phenomenon has become a threat to the safety of living conditions. Many studies had proven that the increase in carbon emissions over the past century was mainly caused by human activities, but the factors currently known that contribute to carbon emissions are difficult to be mitigated. Therefore, further studies on the effect of economic development on carbon emissions might provide more feasible and efficient techniques for reducing carbon emissions.First, based on the framework of the effect of industrial structure on carbon emissions, the industrial structure determines the convergence of the equilibrium path of the regional economy and the final output. The final output and industrial structure influence carbon emissions simultaneously. The dynamic model shows that when higher energy intensity has a low share, its growth will dominate the overall regional carbon emissions. By contrast, when the lower energy intensity has a high share, its growth will lead the whole region to reduce carbon emissions. Second, an empirical analysis is performed to investigate the influence of industrial structure on global carbon emissions. Both the shares of the manufacturing and service industries positively affect carbon emissions. However, the influencing intensity of the service industry decreases along with an increasing share. Therefore, in the early stages of economic development, the rapid growth in the share of the manufacturing sector will increase the amount of carbon emissions; however, in the matured stages of economic development, the increasing share of the service sector and the declining share of the manufacturing sector will decrease the overall influencing intensity of these sectors. Third, an empirical analysis is conducted under different groups of countries according to the developing levels. All in all,compared with very-high-class group o

关 键 词：碳排放 产业结构 面板回归分析 影响强度 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]