中国省际经济增长的空间关联网络结构——基于非线性Granger因果检验方法的再考察  

The Spatial Network Structure of China's Provincial Economic Growth:Re?examination Based on Nonlinear Granger Causality Test

作　　者：刘华军[1] 何礼伟 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《财经研究》2016年第2期97-107,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(15CGL041);山东省社科规划研究重大委托项目(14AWTJ01-12);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2013GQ004)

摘　　要：文章基于经济增长空间传导的非线性趋势,利用最新发展起来的非线性Granger因果检验技术,对中国省际经济增长的空间溢出关系进行了识别,并在社会网络分析框架下揭示了其网络结构特征。研究发现:(1)线性Granger因果检验方法严重低估了中国省际经济增长的空间关联性,而采用非线性Granger因果检验方法不仅可以揭示出更多的空间关联关系,而且能够识别出更多可能的空间溢出渠道,这为提升中国经济增长的空间协同效应提供了更多的实证支持。(2)中国省际经济增长从整体上呈现出更紧密的、更稳定的网络结构形态,在中国省际经济增长的最大可能性网络(ML-Network)中没有任何一个省份能够"孤立"于整体网络。"不谋全局者,不能谋一域",必须从全局的、整体的视角重新审视中国区域经济的协调发展,探寻并创造出更多的空间溢出渠道,发挥经济增长不同板块的不同功能,实现区域经济空间的协同发展。This paper considers the nonlinear trend of spatial condution of economic growth and uses the newly developing nonlinear Granger causality test to identify the spatial spillover relationship of economic growth at provincial level, and reveals the characteristics of its network structure within an analytical framework of social network. It comes to the results as follows： firstly, linear Granger causality test underestimates seriously spatial association of provincial economic growth in China, while the nonlinear Granger causality test method not only reveals more spatial relationships, but also identifies more possible spatial spillover channels, providing further empirical support for promoting spatial synergies of China＇s economic growth; secondly, China＇s provincial economic growth shows a state of closer and more stable network structure as a whole, and no one province can be independent on the overall network in maximum likelihood network （ML-Network） of provincial economic growth in China. ＂Those who do not seek the global cannot seek a domain＂, we must re-examine China＇s coordinated regional economic development from o- verall and global perspectives, explore and create more spatial spillover channels, exert different functions of different plates of economic growth and realize the spatial coordinated development of regional economy.

关 键 词：非线性Granger因果检验 经济增长 空间网络结构 最大可能性网络 

分 类 号：F124.4[经济管理—世界经济]