市场风险、契约关系与农户空间溢出效应——基于人感染禽流感(H7N9)风险视角  

Market Risk,Contractual Relationship and Spatial Spillovers of Farmers:Based on H7N9 Avian Influenza

作　　者：周力[1] 刘馨月[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《财经研究》2016年第2期121-131,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71203094);国家自然科学基金项目(71573130);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(201407-201606);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：文章基于高邮市77个养禽大户的第一手调研数据(包括疫情突发期和风险持续期这两个时期),运用空间计量模型,实证分析了禽流感风险持续冲击下,"公司+农户"的契约关系对养禽户行为的影响,并从禽流感风险引致不确定性的视角,探讨了农户行为的空间溢出效应。研究发现:与"独立"养禽户相比,"公司+农户"的契约关系对农户养殖规模有显著的正向影响。当市场风险增强时,养禽户行为之间的空间溢出效应更加明显。就笔者所知,文章采用农户数据所展开的禽流感疫情空间效应研究,应是新制度经济学的新尝试,研究结果对于禽业可持续发展具有重要的政策含义。Based on the first-hand two-round survey of 77 poultry farmers in Gaoyou, a county-level city, this paper uses spatial econometric models to empirically analyze the impact of ＂company＋farmers＂ contractual relationship on the behavior of poultry farmers under the continued shocks of avian influenza risks. Then it discusses the spatial spillovers of poultry farmers from the perspective of uncertainty resulting from avian influenza risks. It shows that compared with independent poultry farmers, ＂company ＋ farmers＂ contractual relationships have a significant positive impact on breeding scale. When market risks strengthen, the spatial spillovers between poultry farmers are more apparent. As the author knows, that this paper makes the first attempt to use farmers data to do the research of spatial effects of avian influenza, is a new attempt of new institutional economics, and the results have important policy implications for sustainable development of the Chinese poultry industry.

关 键 词：禽流感 契约关系 适应行为 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F324[经济管理—产业经济]