山东省建设用地供给结构对人口流动的影响研究  

The impact of local government construction land supply structure on migration in Shandong,China

作　　者：彭山桂[1] 汪应宏[1] 陈晨[2] 王健[1] 雷刚 程道平[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,徐州221116 [2]济南铁路局土地管理局,济南250001 [3]山东省建设发展研究院,济南250001 [4]山东师范大学商学院,济南250014

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第1期62-72,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171118);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYZZ15_0379);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(SZBF2011-6-B35)

摘　　要：为全面反映地方政府建设用地供给行为对人口生活、生产活动地点选择的影响,明确建设用地供给结构变动影响人口流动的机理,本文通过构建包含地方政府、企业和居民三类主体的一般均衡模型,利用模型的求解和数值模拟,提出研究假设,在此基础上,利用2001-2013年山东省地级市层面的面板数据,运用门限回归分析方法,实证分析了地方政府建设用地供给结构对人口流动的影响方式。研究发现:1建设用地供给结构对人口流入呈现出特殊倒U型的影响方式,在(0,0.823]和(0.823,∞)两个区间内,建设用地供给结构对人口流入影响的偏回归系数分别为2.307 2、-2.133 1,处于不同区间时,建设用地供给结构对人口流入的影响方式存在明显差异;2建设用地供给结构对人口流入影响的偏回归系数的绝对值小于人口规模(26.617 3)和城市区位(11.445 5),但是大于基础设施投资水平(1.399 5),说明建设用地供给结构对人口流入的影响程度介于人口规模、城市区位与基础设施投资水平之间,其对人口流动具有较为重要的影响。地方政府可以利用建设用地供给结构作为工具,根据自身对人口流入的实际需求采取差别性的调控方式,吸引或引导人口流入或流出。In order to reflect the impact of local government land supply behavior on migration, clarify the mechanism of population inflow influenced by construction land supply structure adjustment. Here, we built a general equilibrium model for local government, enterprise and residents using panel data for prefecture-level cities in Shandong, China from 2001-2013. We analyzed the empirical impact of construction land supply structure of local governments on population inflow using threshold regression. We found that the construction land supply structure has an inverted U type relationship with population inflow. The effects on population inflow are different when construction land supply structures are different. The （0, 0.823） interval enhances the value of the construction land supply structure and helps draw population inflow while increasing the proportion of industrial land or decreasing the proportion of commercial and residential land. The （0.823, ∞） interval has a negative impact on population inflow if we continue to increase the proportion of industrial land or reduce the proportion of commercial and residential land. The partial regression coefficients of construction land supply structure is less than the population size （26.617 3） and city location （ 11.445 5） and greater than infrastructure investment （1.399 5）. This indicates that the structure of construction land supply is an indispensable factor to population inflow. Based on real demand of the government itself on population inflow, local governments can use the construction land supply structure as a tool and adopt different ways to regulate and guide the population inflow and outflow.

关 键 词：建设用地 供给结构 一般均衡模型 门限回归 山东省 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学]