中国生猪生产耗水及影响因素分析  

Water requirements within the pig industry in China and factor analysis

作　　者：刘晓磊[1] 栾一博[1] 胡科[1] Reshmita Nath 崔雪锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第1期110-118,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家全球变化专项课题(2011CB952001);国家自然科学基金(41271542)

摘　　要：随着城市化的发展和人均收入的提高,中国居民对猪肉的需求日益增长。猪肉生产耗水量大,其包括饲料作物生长所消耗的水,也包括生猪生产过程所消耗的水。本文从生猪生产的角度计算了2001-2012年生猪生产耗水,结果表明生猪生产水足迹由2001年的3.39m^3/kg下降到2012年的3.31m^3/kg,但生猪生产耗水却从2001年的1910亿m^3上升到2012年的2650亿m^3,增长了38.95%。运用对数平均迪氏指数法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)对影响生猪生产耗水的因素进行了分析。在影响生猪生产耗水的3个因素中,人口的增长和猪肉消费量的增加导致生猪生产耗水的增加,而生猪生产水足迹的降低则会降低生猪生产耗水,三者中,猪肉消费量对生猪生产耗水的贡献最大。同时,农场耗水所占比例不断增加。本研究第一次揭示了长时间尺度,中国大、中、小规模化及散养养殖情况下,生猪生产水足迹的变化以及生产耗水。这有助于处理中国生猪产业的快速发展和耗水量不断增加的关系,促进生猪产业的可持续发展。Due to rapid urbanization and increases in per capita income, China is experiencing a drastic increase in pig meat production in order to meet the growing demand of per capita meat consumption. The water requirements for livestock products is much higher than vegetal counterparts. The water requirements for pig production （composed of water requirement of feed crops growth and pig farming）are increasing to satisfy the development of China＇ s pig industry. From the perspective of pig production, we estimated water requirements for the pig industry from 2001 to 2012. The results indicate that the water footprint （WF）of pig production has decreased from 3.39 in 2001 to 2012, but during the same time total water requirements within the pig industry increased from 191 000× 10^6m3 to 265 000× 10^6m3, an increase by 38.95%. By applying the logarithmic mean divisia index method, we found that increasing consumption and population have positive effects on increasing water requirements in pig production. In contrast, an advancement in water footprint for pig production has promoted water saving. Among these three factors, the largest contributor to water requirements is consumption. Simultaneously, the scale of water requirement has increased. This study reveals changes in the pig farming water footprint under pig farming cultivation over a long time scale. These findings will help optimizing relationships between limited water resources and the sustainable development of the pig industry.

关 键 词：水足迹 生猪生产 规模化 粮食安全 

分 类 号：S828[农业科学—畜牧学]