关中地区农业干旱脆弱性评价  

Evaluation of agricultural vulnerability to drought in Guanzhong Area

作　　者：李梦娜[1] 钱会[1] 乔亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,西安710054

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第1期166-174,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项基金":渭河中下游干旱预警与应急水源配置"(201301084)

摘　　要：关中地区是中国重要的粮食生产基地,了解其农业干旱脆弱性是科学应对干旱的前提和基础。在农业干旱脆弱性评价中,为更加科学地选取指标和确定指标权重,将灰色关联聚类分析法和博弈论思想引入脆弱性评价。筛选出10个指标,得到各指标主、客观赋权的组合权重。运用综合指数法构建脆弱性模型,计算得到关中地区各城市的农业干旱脆弱性指标值,在此基础上,采用因子贡献度模型分析得到各指标对每个城市农业干旱脆弱性的贡献度。结果表明,农业干旱脆弱性由小到大的顺序依次为西安、渭南、咸阳、宝鸡和铜川。西安市敏感性和恢复性的贡献度相当,有效灌溉面积不足和农用塑料薄膜使用量较少对西安市农业干旱脆弱性贡献较大。渭南市、咸阳市为恢复性主导,财政收入偏低和人均GDP偏低对两市农业干旱脆弱性贡献较大。宝鸡市敏感性和恢复性的贡献度相当,铜川市为敏感性主导,单位面积农田灌溉用水量小和水利工程供水能力弱对这两个城市农业干旱脆弱性贡献较大。最后,根据指标对各城市农业干旱脆弱性贡献度的大小,提出相应应对措施。Guangzhong Area is one of the most important production regions of crops, so it＇ s of great importance to know its agricultural vulnerability. In the evaluation of agricultural vulnerability to drought in Guanzhong Area, to make the selection of indexes and determination of the weights of indexes more scientific, grey relation analysis and combination weighting game theory were put into use. 10 indexes were screened out from 12 indexes, and the combined weights of these indexes were calculated. Agricultural vulnerability value to drought in Guanzhong Area was calculated by vulnerability model which is developed by comprehensive index method. Contribution model was applied to analysis each city＇ s main contributing factors and indexes. The results show that： the least vulnerable city is Xi＇ an, and the following is Weinan, Xianyang, Baoojiand and Tongchuan. Sensitivity and restorative make similar contribution to Xi＇ an, while lack of effective irrigation area, and less consumption of agricultural plastic film per unit arable area are the main contributors. Restorative contributes more for Weinan and Xianyang. Low government revenue and low per capita GDP are the main contributors for two cities. Sensitivity and restorative make similar contribution to Baooji. Sensitivity contributes more for Tongchuan. Irrigation water consumption per unit area of farmland and water supply capacity of water conservancy projects are the main contributors for Baooji and Tongchuan. Finally, to reduce each cities＇ agricultural vulnerability to drought, countermeasures are put forward based on the main contribution indexes.

关 键 词：农业干旱 脆弱性 综合指数法 贡献度 关中地区 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]