四川盆地水稻产量构成要素与气象要素的相关性分析  

Correlation Analysis of Rice Yield Forming Factors and Meteorological Elements in Sichuan Basin

作　　者：赵艺[1] 秦宁生[1] 卢杰 李金建[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省农业气象中心,四川成都610072 [2]成都市温江区气象局,四川成都611130

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2015年第6期2343-2347,共5页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41375116;41405077);四川省气象局科学技术研究开发课题(2013-开发-14)

摘　　要：通过对历史数据进行分析,揭示已发生的气候变化对四川盆地水稻生产的影响。应用1981-2009年四川盆地22个站点的水稻观测数据及与其对应的气象观测数据,对水稻拔节孕穗期、抽穗开花期和灌浆乳熟期的平均最高气温、平均日降水量和平均日照时数与水稻空壳率、秕谷率和千粒重建立统计回归关系,分析气象要素对水稻生产的影响。结果表明,盆西平原区(Ⅰ)空壳率随抽穗扬花期平均最高气温的升高而减少,随拔节孕穗期降水量的增加而增加,随抽穗扬花期和灌浆乳熟期平均日照时数的增加而减少;盆中浅丘区(Ⅱ)秕谷率随乳熟期平均最高气温的升高而降低;盆南丘陵区(Ⅲ)空壳率随平均最高气温和平均日照时数的升高而增加,千粒重随平均最高气温的升高而降低,随平均日降水量的增加而增加;气象要素对盆东平行岭谷区(Ⅳ)的影响较小。由此说明,影响四川盆地水稻空壳率的主要生育期为拔节孕穗期、抽穗开花期和灌浆乳熟期,影响秕谷率的主要生育期为灌浆乳熟期,影响千粒重的时期主要为拔节孕穗期;干旱对盆南丘陵区(Ⅲ)拔节孕穗期水稻产量构成要素的影响较大,与气候变暖相应的高温危害对四川盆地产量构成要素的影响较小。本研究为准确评估气候变化对水稻生产造成的影响及采取相应措施提供理论依据。Based on analysis of historical data,the impact of climate change on rice production in Sichuan basin was revealed. Applying the22 site observation data of rice and corresponding meteorological observation data of the Sichuan basin from 1981 to 2009,a statistical regression relationship was established between average maximum temperature,average daily precipitation and average sunshine time of jointingbooting stage,heading-blooming stage and milk stage with rate of empty grain,rate of unfulfilled grain and thousand seed weight,and then the effect of meteorological elements on rice production was analyzed. Result showed that rate of empty grain decreased as average maximum temperature of heading-blooming stage increased in plains of west basin region; Rate of unfulfilled grain decreased as average maximum temperature of milk stage increased; Rate of empty grain increased as average maximum temperature and average sunshine time increased,thousand seed weight decreased as average maximum temperature increased and increased as average daily precipitation increased in hills of south basin region in shallow hill of middle basin region; Meteorological elements had smaller influence on the parallel ridge-valley region of east basin. It was concluded that the main growth durations affecting the rate of empty grain of Sichuan basin were jointing-booting stage,heading-blooming stage and milk stage. The main growth duration affecting the rate of unfulfilled grain was milk stage; The main stage affecting the thousand seed weight was jointing-booting stage; Drought had a bigger influence on rice production at jointing-booting stage of hills of south basin region,climate warming,the corresponding high temperature damage in Sichuan basin had little effect on yield components. This provided the theoretical basis to accurately assess the impact of climate change on rice production and take corresponding measures.

关 键 词：平均最高气温 平均日降水量 平均日照时数 空壳率 秕谷率 千粒重 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]