醉酒型危险驾驶罪量刑影响因素实证研究  

Empirical Study on Factors Affecting the Sentencing of the Crime of Driving under Influence

作　　者：文姬[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学法学院

出　　处：《法学研究》2016年第1期165-186,共22页Chinese Journal of Law

基　　金："法治湖南建设与区域社会治理协同创新中心"平台建设;湖南省社科基金项目"抽象危险犯的立案标准研究"(14YBA106);2014年部属高校国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目"醉酒驾驶的定罪与量刑实证研究"(201410532022)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：通过对已有研究进行比较,指出醉酒型危险驾驶罪量刑问题实证研究的回归模型构建中存在的哑变量设置以及标准化系数计算等问题;总结出在利用回归模型作为量刑模型预测刑罚量时,必须有较高的决定系数,在利用回归模型分析量刑影响因素的相对重要性、计算基准刑时,则不需要有较高的决定系数。在计算基准刑时,拘役判决的基准事实不仅包括血液酒精含量等因素,还应当包括量刑影响因素的参照水平;罚金判决的基准事实则不必然包括血液酒精含量,但可能包括行为人的经济状况。通过对全国2912份醉酒型危险驾驶罪判决书的研究,分析出影响拘役天数、罚金数额、缓刑情况的显著因素,并排列出相对重要性顺序;总结出拘役判决的基准事实为血液酒精含量,并据此计算出基准刑,即基准事实所对应的拘役天数回归模型的预测值;分析出罚金判决的基准事实包括血液酒精含量和车型,并据此计算出基准刑;指出缓刑判决的规范化标准同时包括血液酒精含量和认罪态度,并据此计算出参照标准。A comparative study on the existing literature on the sentencing of driving under influence （DUI） in China reveals that many improvements still need to be made to the current system. An anal- ysis of the methods of regression model shows that when the regression model is taken as sentencing model, the determination coefficient R-square must be high; and when the regression model is used to compute the relative significance of the factors or the benchmark line in sentencing, the determination coefficient R-square needs not to be very high. When computing the benchmark line for sentencing, the benchmark factors of criminal detention include not only elements of the crime of DUI, but also the reference levels of other significant factors that influence the sentencing of DUI; the benchmark factors of criminal fine do not definitely include the ＂alcohol content of per 100 milliliters of blood＂. Through the analysis of 2,912 cases of DUI, we find out that ＂alcohol content of per 100 milliliters of blood＂ is the most significant factor in the criminal detention sentencing of DUI, which can be set as the benchmark line for the criminal detention sentencing. Moreover, we also find out that ＂alcohol content of per 100 milliliters of blood＂ and ＂the type of automotive vehicle＂ are both significant fac- tors in the criminal fine sentencing of DUI, which can be set as the benchmark line for criminal fine sentencing. Furthermore, we have found out that ＂alcohol content of per 100 milliliters of blood＂ and ＂the attitude toward admission of guilt＂ are both significant factors in the probation sentencing of DUI, which can be set as the benchmark line for the probation sentencing.

关 键 词：醉酒型危险驾驶罪 量刑影响因素 基准刑 

分 类 号：D924.1[政治法律—刑法学]