人口城镇化进程中的驱动因素研究——基于地级市的时空计量模型分析  

Driving Factors of Population Urbanization——A Spatial Panel Data Model Based on Cities at Prefecture Level in China

作　　者：钟阳[1] 王智勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100028

出　　处：《软科学》2016年第1期26-30,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BGJ044);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2014M560152)

摘　　要：通过建立空间面板模型并选取2000~2013年地级及以上城市的面板数据,实证分析了城镇化发展中的直接和空间驱动因素。结果表明：地区非农产业发展程度、经济发展水平和人力资本水平均是本地区城镇化发展的推动因素。其中,非农产业发展程度对本地城镇化的推动作用主要源于第三产业的发展水平。中国各区域间城镇化发展存在空间相依性,即一个地区在积极发展城镇化的同时,还对周边地区产生了辐射效应。本地非农产业发展水平对周边地区城镇化所产生的负向空间外溢影响主要来自于第二产业发展在区域间的作用力。相反,经济发展水平和人力资本水平的提升对周边地区城镇化产生正向溢出效应。Based on the panel data for cities at prefecture level or above in China,this paper constructed a spatial panel data model to empirically analyze the direct and spatial driving factors of urbanization from 2000 to 2013. Results showed that the development of non-agricultural industries,the level of economic development and the human capital level are main driving factors of Chinese urbanization. The driving effect of non-agricultural industries on urbanization came from the third industry.In addition,it also found that there was strong spatial spillover effect among cities during Chinese urbanization. The development of non-agricultural industries had negative spatial spillover effect on urbanization of the neighbouring region,which can be achieved by the second industry. By contrast,economic development and human capital have positive spatial spillover effect on urbanization of the neighbouring region.

关 键 词：人口城镇化 产业结构 经济发展 人力资本 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济] C924.24[社会学—人口学]