政策终结系统动力及建模——基于耗散结构论的解释  

Dynamics of Policy Termination System and Its Model Construction——Based on an Interpretation of Dissipative Structure Theory

作　　者：曲纵翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学管理学院,北京100081

出　　处：《东北大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第1期49-55,共7页Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大资助项目(11&ZD070)

摘　　要：政策终结系统的动力形成与耗散结构论有着较强的契合性,其作为一个开放的、远离平衡态的系统,内部要素在非线性的相互作用下通过突变过程产生自组织现象,并伴随要素间的随机性涨落走向有序状态而形成耗散结构。在耗散结构论的基础上梳理政策终结系统的动力机制,分析其动力实现过程并将该过程模型化。根据模型进一步发现,促进"隐性冲突"向"显性冲突"的转化、缩小并弱化正反终结联盟的利益冲突范围与强度、强化联盟成员以终结为导向的学习、合理利用社会舆论与政策评价的作用能够为政策终结系统的动力输出提供持续性的保障。The dynamic formation of policy termination system matches well the dissipative structure theory in that as a system open to and far from the equilibrium state,its internal factors could lead to self-organization through the mutation process via the nonlinear interactions,and an orderly dissipative structure could be formed accompanied by the stochastic fluctuation of these factors.Based on the dissipative structure theory,the dynamic mechanism of policy termination system was explored and the model for its dynamic realization was constructed.Furthermore,several approaches were found that to provide consistent guarantee for the dynamic output of policy termination system including transferring from recessive conflict to dominant conflict,narrowing the scope and weakening the intensity of interest conflicts between policy termination coalition and anti-policy termination coalition,strengthening the termination-oriented learning of coalition members,and making use of the public opinions and policy evaluation rationales.

关 键 词：政策终结 系统 动力 耗散结构 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学]